An Election in Form

By Halimo Ismail

Since the collapse of Somalia’s military regime in 1991, the country’s political landscape has been defined by severe conflict, structural instability, and ongoing security challenges. Yet, amidst this volatility, the nation established a rare and essential political precedent: the peaceful transfer of executive power. Through successive electoral cycles, incoming and outgoing administrations, despite intense disagreements and efforts by incumbent leaders to prolong their mandates, ultimately acquiesced to negotiated political settlements. This recurring consensus became the bedrock of modern Somali state-building and a safeguard against total systemic collapse.

That tradition now faces a pivotal crisis under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who unilaterally extended his term following its expiration on May 15, 2026. Under the guise of an ambitious transition to universal suffrage, his administration is promoting a “one-person, one-vote” model, but a centralizing tactic to mask an autocratic power grab.

However, beneath this democratic narrative of universal suffrage lies a strategic initiative to alter the political timetable. Through a combination of political pressure, or toppling defiant regional leaders, and golden parachute packages for compliant ones, President Hassan has centralized authority to hand pick leadership successions across Federal Member States under his Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP) flagship.