Geopolitical Conflicts Exacerbate Inflation and Food Insecurity in the Horn of Africa

Mogadishu – The Horn of Africa, already burdened by chronic food insecurity and economic fragility, is now facing intensified inflationary pressures as a direct consequence of two ongoing geopolitical conflicts: the Iran-U.S. proxy tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war. Regional and international diplomatic sources confirm that these conflicts have severely disrupted global supply chains for fuel, wheat, fertilizer, and cooking oil — essential goods upon which Horn nations heavily rely.

Impact of Iran-U.S. Tensions on Energy Prices

Diplomatic observers note that hostilities in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, including targeted strikes on commercial vessels, have disrupted maritime routes critical for fuel imports to Djibouti, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. Consequently, global oil price volatility has translated into a steep rise in domestic fuel costs.

Average petrol prices increased from approximately $1.10 per liter (pre-2021) to between $1.80 and $2.50 across the region.