Somalia dispute drives Uganda-Turkey defence rupture: report

Kampala (Somalia Today) — Uganda’s decision to suspend military cooperation with Turkey is linked to tensions over Kampala’s long-running troop presence in Somalia and Ankara’s expanding role in the country’s security sector, according to sources familiar with the dispute.

Middle East Eye reported on Monday that the row over Ugandan government critic Fred Lumbuye, who lives in Turkey, had become the public face of a broader disagreement over Somalia and the future of Uganda’s military deployment there.

Sources cited by the publication said Somalia had asked Uganda to end its military presence, pointing to the growing capabilities of Somali forces trained and equipped with Turkish support.

Neither Mogadishu nor Kampala has publicly confirmed the reported request

“The whole episode is connected to the Ugandan army’s presence in Somalia,” one source familiar with the dispute told Middle East Eye.

Uganda has about 4,500 soldiers serving with the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia, or AUSSOM, and roughly 2,000 more under a separate bilateral arrangement with Mogadishu, according to figures previously reported by Somalia Today .

The Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces announced on Saturday that it had suspended all defence and military cooperation with Turkey with immediate effect.

Army spokesman Colonel Chris Magezi said the measure would remain in force until “outstanding issues of mutual defence and military cooperation” were resolved, but the UPDF did not publicly identify Somalia as the cause.

Somalia at centre

Uganda has been a key pillar of the African Union’s military operations in Somalia since becoming the first country to deploy troops under the AU mission in March 2007.

Its forces currently lead AUSSOM’s Sector One, covering Mogadishu and parts of Lower Shabelle, both of which remain central to operations against Al-Shabaab.

Turkey, meanwhile, has emerged as one of Somalia’s most important defence partners, training thousands of soldiers, supplying military equipment and helping develop specialised Somali units.

Its military presence is centred on the TURKSOM training facility in Mogadishu, while Turkish-supplied drones have become increasingly important in government operations against Al-Shabaab.

The partnership continues to deepen. On Monday, the same day Middle East Eye published its report, Somali Defence Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi met a Turkish military delegation led by TURKSOM commander Major General Sabahattin Kalkan.

Somalia’s Defence Ministry said the talks focused on strengthening defence cooperation, training Somali troops and improving the armed forces’ capabilities. Fiqi thanked Turkey for its continued support in rebuilding Somalia’s military.

Turkey’s parliament also voted in July to extend the deployment of Turkish forces in Somalia for another two years, until July 2028.

Middle East Eye said sources familiar with the Uganda-Turkey dispute believed those growing Somali capabilities had reduced Mogadishu’s dependence on Ugandan forces.

The publication said Uganda could lose millions of dollars annually if its deployments ended, citing sources who estimated the financial impact at between $60 million and $72 million a year. Uganda, Somalia or the African Union have not publicly confirmed those figures.

Gradual transition

Somalia’s government has publicly called for national forces to assume greater responsibility for security, although it has not issued a specific demand that Ugandan troops leave.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said in August that the time was approaching for Somalia to thank foreign troops and take responsibility for defending the country itself.

“The world and our friends have helped us, but our time has come — the time for us to take responsibility,” Mohamud said at a military graduation ceremony.

“The time has also come for us to give the forces who are in our country beautiful flowers and say to them, ‘Brothers, thank you.’”

Hussein Abdirzak, a Mogadishu-based analyst, told Somalia Today that Somali forces were better prepared for a gradual reduction in international security support than in previous years.

“I think what the Somali government opposes is a rapid withdrawal,” Abdirzak said. “Somalia can now largely stand on its own, and its forces are much stronger than they were before.”

He said expanded air capabilities, particularly Turkey’s support for Somali drone operations, had altered the military balance.

“The government now has air capabilities and Turkish drones, and that has made a significant difference in the war,” he said.

The question of how quickly foreign forces can leave remains unresolved. Al-Shabaab continues to operate across parts of southern and central Somalia, while AUSSOM still supports Somali forces, protects strategic infrastructure and holds positions in areas contested by the militants.

Funding crisis

The mission is also facing a funding crisis.

The United States agreed this month to give the United Nations another year to wind down logistical support for AUSSOM beginning in January 2027. However, Washington still intends to end its backing for the UN Support Office in Somalia, which supplies peacekeepers with food, fuel, medical services and transport.

Uganda’s military chief, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, said in August that all Ugandan troops would leave Somalia by August 1, 2027, although the Ugandan government has not publicly adopted his timetable as formal policy.

“We are withdrawing completely from Somalia by the 1st of August 2027,” Kainerugaba said. “There will not be UPDF in Somalia after that.”

Uganda’s defence minister had previously taken a different position, saying Kampala intended to remain in Somalia under its separate bilateral arrangement even if the structure of the AU mission changed.

Lumbuye row

The immediate public confrontation with Turkey has centred on Lumbuye, a Ugandan political commentator who has lived in Turkey for years and is wanted by Kampala over allegations including incitement and cyber-related offences.

Hundreds of supporters of the Patriotic League of Uganda, a group chaired by Kainerugaba, demonstrated outside the Turkish embassy in Kampala on Friday demanding his extradition.

Kainerugaba praised the demonstrators and warned that Turkey would have to meet Uganda’s demands.

But Middle East Eye’s sources said the Lumbuye case was not the principal cause of the rupture, describing it instead as part of a wider disagreement over Uganda’s military interests in Somalia and Turkey’s expanding influence there.

The dispute has therefore emerged at a sensitive moment for Somalia, as Mogadishu builds stronger national forces while the future size, financing and duration of the African Union mission remains unsettled.