Somalia Faces Critical Security Transition as AUSSOM Support Comes Under Strain

MOGADISHU—Somalia could face a significant security transition as uncertainty grows over the future of international support for the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), the International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned in a new report.

The report says AUSSOM remains heavily dependent on the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) for essential logistical services, including food, water, fuel, transportation and support to military bases across southern Somalia. Any major reduction in that assistance could significantly affect the mission’s ability to sustain operations.

AUSSOM’s military presence has declined substantially from nearly 22,000 personnel in the mid-2010s to an estimated 12,000 troops, according to the ICG, amid growing financial and operational pressures.

Somalia has meanwhile expanded and strengthened its national security forces, with more than 10,000 personnel trained with assistance from Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates and Eritrea. However, the ICG says Somali forces are not yet capable of fully assuming all responsibilities currently carried out by AUSSOM.

The report also identifies political divisions as a major obstacle to building a unified national security structure. Tensions between the Federal Government and federal member states, particularly Puntland and Jubaland, could complicate efforts to coordinate military operations and establish a cohesive national force.

Somalia’s bilateral security partnerships with Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia could become increasingly important if AUSSOM is reduced or eventually withdrawn. The ICG notes that existing agreements could facilitate the continued deployment of troops from those countries under bilateral arrangements with Mogadishu.

Türkiye’s expanding role in Somalia’s security sector is also highlighted, with Ankara having trained thousands of Somali troops. The United States, meanwhile, continues to conduct targeted counterterrorism operations against Al-Shabaab.

The ICG warns that a complete withdrawal of UNSOS support could make it difficult for AUSSOM to maintain its current operational capacity. Areas vacated by African Union forces could become vulnerable to attacks or territorial advances by Al-Shabaab if Somali forces are unable to immediately fill emerging security gaps.

The organization has called for urgent contingency planning to protect major cities, strategic roads and other critical infrastructure during any future transition. Somali forces, alongside troops from countries with bilateral security agreements, could play a greater role in maintaining security.

The ICG has urged the Somali government and its international partners to develop a comprehensive security strategy ahead of expected changes to UNSOS and AUSSOM.

The report also cautions that an expanding network of bilateral security arrangements could create competing spheres of influence across Somalia if they are not coordinated through a unified national framework.

The ICG concludes that sustainable security will depend on Somalia’s ability to build a capable, nationally coordinated security force that can gradually assume greater responsibility for the country’s security, while addressing the political disputes that continue to undermine national security coordination.