Turjumaad ayaa la diyaarinayaa

By Dr Aweys O. Mohamoud

Somalia stands at the precipice of a quiet but profound democratic reversal. In Galmudug today and echoing earlier maneuvers in Baidoa and South West State—former president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) and his allies are not merely engaging in routine political competition. They are executing a systematic erosion of federalism and constitutional norms through what Milan W. Svolik would precisely diagnose as an incumbent takeover. Recent moves—disempowering key figures like Mahad Salad by redirecting NISA units to report directly to an official aligned with Villa Somalia (Macalin Yusuf), backing controversial challenger Liban Shuluq against incumbent President Abdi Kariye Qoor-Qoor, and fueling internal divisions among aggrieved leaders such as Hamza Barre—fit a clear pattern of fragmentation followed by coercive control. This is an incremental dismantling of Somalia’s fragile constitutional order from within the executive itself.

These events demand more than journalistic reporting. They require the sharp lens of democratic theory to reveal what is truly at stake.

Theoretical Benchmarks: Huntington and Gasiorowski on When Democracy Endures