Southwest Somalia conflict risks spiraling into inter-clan war, ACLED warns

MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – A political and military standoff in Somalia’s Southwest state risks escalating beyond a power struggle into a protracted inter-clan conflict that could destabilize the wider Bay region, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) said in a new report.

The conflict pits federal government forces and their regional allies against Darwish forces loyal to ousted Southwest State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen. According to ACLED, the two sides have fought at least 78 armed engagements in the Bay region between Feb. 2 and Aug. 28, with fighting concentrated overwhelmingly in the Baidoa district.

Twenty-two of those clashes occurred in a five-week window from Feb. 4 to March, ACLED found, as federal forces mobilized to remove Laftagareen from power. The push to unseat him followed his decision to hold a state election, in which he was re-elected on March 28 to a second term – a vote Mogadishu did not recognize.

The federal government and a new Southwest administration, installed in June, have since branded the opposition forces as terrorists. Officials have accused Laftagareen’s fighters of coordinating with Al-Shabaab militants during an attack on Baidoa city on Aug. 17, and specialized federal forces have begun deploying to the region to launch an operation against them. Spokespersons and supporters aligned with the opposition have firmly rejected the terrorism allegations.