The Fate of Somalia: Assessing the Consequences of Executive Overreach and Constitutional Crisis

By Djama Mahamoud Ali

Under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a pattern of executive actions that have systematically undermined federalism, regional autonomy, and constitutional governance have become normal. This pattern include interference in South West State elections, the coerced resignation of Galmudug’s president, military confrontation with Jubaland, the deployment of forces against Puntland, and unilateral constitutional changes. this analysis assesses the likely trajectory of Somalia’s fragile statehood. The cumulative effect of these actions, combined with the opposition’s unified rejection of the president’s agenda, points toward a deepening political fragmentation that risks reversing the modest gains achieved since the establishment of the federal system in 2012.

Since his re-election in 2022, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has pursued an ambitious agenda of centralizing authority in Mogadishu. While framed as state-building and democratic reform, this agenda has precipitated a profound crisis in Somalia’s federal system. The President’s approach, characterized by unilateral actions against federal member states contested constitutional amendments, and the prioritization of political consolidation over counterterrorism, has generated unprecedented resistance from regional administrations and opposition coalitions.

This paper assesses the fate of Somalia by examining a series of interconnected crises that, together, threaten the country’s political cohesion.