The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience a wetter-than-normal October – December (OND) 2026 season as El Niño strengthens

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), together with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the Greater Horn of Africa and partners, has released the regional climate outlook for the October–December (OND) 2026 season, indicating an increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions over the region.

The OND season is a critical rainfall period for the equatorial and southern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, contributing up to 70% of total annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia and up to 40% of total annual rainfall in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda.

The current Sea Surface Temperatures over the Pacific Ocean indicate that El Niño has developed, and it is expected to strengthen further during the remainder of the year (2026). Furthermore, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to be in the positive phase. These conditions normally lead to enhanced rainfall over the region during the OND season.

The regional downscaled rainfall forecast indicates an increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions in the Greater Horn of Africa, with a 90% chance of enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and north-eastern Kenya. The forecast also indicates a high chance of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm in parts of central to southern Somalia, central parts of Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin region, Burundi, western Rwanda and western Tanzania.