By Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh

By any measure, Somalia is entering one of the most dangerous political periods since the end of the transitional era. What began as a dispute over constitutional reforms, electoral arrangements, and the concentration of power in Mogadishu has evolved into a full-blown political crisis threatening the stability of the federal system itself.

The armed confrontations in Mogadishu involving government forces and opposition figures have exposed the depth of the divisions now consuming Somali politics. The scenes of gunfire in the capital, reports of civilian displacement, suspension of flights, and accusations exchanged between former national leaders would have been unthinkable only a few years ago. Yet they are now part of Somalia’s daily reality.

The crisis raises a fundamental question: how did Somalia arrive at this point, and what role should the international community play in preventing the country from sliding into another cycle of instability?

The Roots of the Crisis

At the center of the dispute lies a growing disagreement over the future structure of the Somali state. The Federal Government argues that constitutional reforms and electoral changes are necessary to move Somalia away from indirect clan-based voting toward a more democratic system. Government officials have repeatedly maintained that their objective is to complete unfinished state-building processes and create stronger national institutions capable of governing effectively.

The opposition, however, views recent developments very differently. Former presidents, former prime ministers, opposition politicians, and leaders from several federal member states have accused the federal leadership of attempting to centralize power at the expense of the federal arrangement agreed upon after years of national reconciliation. They argue that major constitutional changes have been pursued without adequate consultation and consensus among key political stakeholders.

The resulting deadlock has transformed political disagreements into a struggle over the very nature of Somalia’s future governance. Will Somalia remain a decentralized federal republic with significant autonomy for regional states, or will power gradually become concentrated in the capital? That question remains unresolved.

Federalism Under Pressure

The current tensions did not emerge overnight. Relations between Mogadishu and several federal member states have been strained for years. Disputes over resource sharing, security responsibilities, constitutional interpretation, and political representation have repeatedly brought the federal system to the brink. Successive governments have struggled to respect the delicate balance required for federalism to function effectively in a country emerging from decades of conflict.

Supporters of the federal government counter that some regional leaders have resisted national reforms in order to preserve local political interests. Regardless of where one stands, the result has been the same: a widening trust deficit between the center and the regions. That trust deficit is now being compounded by growing polarization within Mogadishu itself.

The political crisis comes at a particularly dangerous time. Somalia continues to face a persistent threat from Al-Shabaab, which remains capable of carrying out large-scale attacks despite years of military operations. At the same time, security forces are increasingly being drawn into political disputes rather than focusing exclusively on counterterrorism operations.

The prolonged political confrontation could weaken national security institutions and divert attention away from the fight against extremist groups. History offers sobering lessons. Periods of intense political division have often provided opportunities for armed groups to regroup, recruit, and exploit state weakness. Somalia can ill afford such a scenario today.

The International Community’s Dilemma

For more than two decades, Somalia’s international partners have invested billions of dollars in security assistance, institution building, humanitarian relief, and development programs. The international community—including the United Nations, African Union, the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, and other partners—has repeatedly emphasized the importance of dialogue, consensus-building, and constitutional governance.

Yet many Somalis increasingly question whether international engagement has been effective enough. Critics argue that external actors often prioritize short-term stability over genuine political reconciliation. They contend that international partners have sometimes supported institutions without adequately addressing the underlying political disputes that continue to destabilize the country.

Others maintain that the international community has little choice but to work with existing governments while encouraging dialogue behind the scenes. The reality is that foreign actors cannot resolve Somalia’s political disputes on behalf of Somalis themselves. However, they can influence incentives, encourage compromise, and help create conditions conducive to dialogue.

What the International Community Can Do

First, international partners must consistently support inclusive political dialogue rather than appearing to favor any particular faction. Second, they should encourage adherence to constitutional principles, political compromise, and respect for democratic processes. Third, they can use diplomatic leverage to discourage violence and ensure that political disagreements are resolved through negotiation rather than force.

Fourth, international assistance should continue to strengthen institutions rather than individuals. Sustainable state-building depends on durable institutions capable of functioning regardless of who occupies political office.

Finally, international actors should recognize that Somalia’s stability ultimately depends on broad political legitimacy. No security strategy, no matter how well funded, can substitute for a political settlement accepted by the country’s major stakeholders.

The Road Ahead

Somalia stands at a pivotal moment. The country has made significant progress since the darkest days of state collapse. New institutions have been built, security forces have expanded, and political participation has increased. Yet many of the foundational questions about governance, power-sharing, and constitutional order remain unresolved.

The current crisis demonstrates that these issues can no longer be postponed.The choice facing Somalia’s leaders is stark. They can continue down a path of confrontation that risks deepening political fragmentation and insecurity, or they can pursue a negotiated settlement that strengthens both the federal system and national unity. The international community can help facilitate that process, but it cannot impose it.

Ultimately, Somalia’s future will be determined not in foreign capitals but by the willingness of Somali leaders to place national interests above political rivalry and recognize that no individual, party, or institution can build a stable state alone. The stakes could not be higher. The decisions made in the coming months may well determine whether Somalia moves toward greater stability and democratic governance—or returns to another period of prolonged political turmoil.

Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh
Email: abdikarimshak@gmail.com

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Turjumaad ayaa la diyaarinayaa

Turjumaad ayaa la diyaarinayaa