By Dayib Sh. Ahmed

In Mogadishu, Somalia, during periods of profound political uncertainty, states often rely upon designated international mediators to stabilize governance and prevent systemic collapse. Ordinarily, such mediators are expected to function as neutral arbiters, facilitating de-escalation and guiding the parties back from the brink of institutional breakdown.

However, where the appointed mediator simultaneously assumes the role of principal architect and primary beneficiary of the underlying crisis, the character of diplomatic engagement is fundamentally altered. In such circumstances, diplomacy may be construed as having deviated from its customary neutral function and instead becoming an instrument intertwined with, or contributing to, the perpetuation of the very instability it is meant to resolve.

As heavy gunfire shakes Mogadishu and smoke rises over residential neighborhoods, a high-level Turkish delegation composed of diplomats and intelligence officials has arrived in the capital. Ostensibly, their mission is to facilitate dialogue between the Federal Government of Somalia and a fractured opposition reeling from a heavily contested political transition. In reality, Ankara is entering a theater of its own making, attempting to arbitrate a crisis where its own financial, geopolitical, and military interests are deeply and inextricably entangled. The current push for mediation is an exercise in political theater, designed not to restore a consensus-based democracy, but to rubber-stamp an authoritarian slide.

The Imperial Calculus of Ankara’s “State-Building”

Over the past decade, Turkey has carefully cultivated an image as Somalia’s most indispensable, altruistic partner, investing heavily in infrastructure, healthcare, and institutional development. But beneath this veneer of humanitarian solidarity lies a highly transactional, neo-colonial strategy of layered influence that is fundamentally reshaping the Horn of Africa.

Ankara’s geopolitical calculus in Somalia has increasingly blurred the lines between state security and corporate resource extraction. This arrangement hands vast strategic levers directly back to Turkish entities. Under the sweeping defense and economic cooperation frameworks formalized with Mogadishu, Turkey has been authorized to train and equip the Somali Army forces in exchange for a staggering 30 percent of revenues derived from the Somali exclusive economic zone. This is not partnership, it is economic vassalage disguised as maritime security.

The corporate extraction deepens further beneath the seabed. Turkey’s state energy company holds exclusive production-sharing agreements granting it exploration rights to massive offshore blocks covering roughly 5,800 square miles of Somali waters. The state-owned Turkish deep-sea drillship, the Çağri Bey, sits anchored at the Curad-1 well site off the coast of Mogadishu, anchoring an offshore exploration campaign that could control up to 30 billion barrels of reserves.

Beyond energy, this monopolies-driven grip extends across the nation’s primary transport hubs, Turkish companies. control Favori LLC, which manages the Aden Adde International Airport, and the Albayrak Group, which controls the Mogadishu Sea Port. By taking total ownership of the capital’s economic lifelines, Ankara ensures that no goods, passengers, or resources enter or leave the state without a Turkish corporation taking its cut.

For Ankara, the preservation of a compliant, heavily dependent federal administration in Mogadishu is a multi-million, dollar commercial necessity. A genuine democratic transition one that includes autonomous, vocal Federal Member States like Puntland, Jubaland, would inevitably reopen these opaque, highly unfavorable resource agreements to rigorous parliamentary scrutiny and regional renegotiation. By embedding its military footprint into Camp TURKSOM, controlling the security sector, and dominating Somali airspace, Turkey is effectively acting as the heavily armed guard of its own corporate concessions.

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Constitutional Coup

This transactional dynamic finds its perfect domestic partner in President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Under the provisional framework that brought him to power, Mohamud’s original four-year mandate expired on May 15, 2026. Rather than organizing an inclusive, consensus-based path toward a national transition, Mohamud has orchestrated what regional leaders and opposition coalitions have rightfully characterized as a clear “constitutional coup.”

Through a series of aggressive, unilateral amendments pushed through the federal parliament in early March 2026, Mohamud high-handedly extended presidential and parliamentary terms from four years to five, delaying democratic elections until 2027. This self-serving legal maneuver has plunged the country into an unprecedented political impasse, provoking a total collapse of relations with vital Federal Member States. Puntland, and Jubaland have entirely withdrawn their cooperation, rendering the central government’s claims to national sovereignty a hollow fiction.

As Abraham Lincoln, the 16th president of the United States, famously observed, “Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.”

The historical indictment of Mohamud’s current actions is best delivered by his own words. Writing for Foreign Affairs magazine on January 26, 2022, under the title – Somalia’s Dangerous Authoritarian Turn: Decades of Democratic Progress Are at Risk,” Mohamud forcefully argued against executive overreach.

” No one wants to see the country slide back into the chaos of the past. The time has come to address the obvious flaws in the electoral process, and then to move swiftly to hold an election. Somalis deserve to choose a new president by February 8, 2022, the first anniversary of Mohamed’s illegal extension. Doing so will send a powerful signal to the younger generations that no one can stay in power beyond their constitutional term.”

Today, that exact quotation is flooding Somali social media networks, wielded by a betrayed public as a political weapon against him. The Somali people are echoing his 2022 decree back to the presidential palace, loudly demanding that Mohamud look in the mirror, accept legitimate electoral procedures, and come to the negotiating table for a fair game. The hypocrisy is not lost on the citizens of Mogadishu. If staying in power beyond a constitutional term was a dangerous authoritarian turn in 2022, it remains a dangerous authoritarian turn in 2026. By abandoning his own principles, Mohamud has signaled to the younger generation that constitutional fidelity is merely a stepping stone to be discarded once power is secured.

Where previous Somali leaders faced swift domestic backlash and severe international condemnation for such overreach, Mohamud enjoys a luxury none of his predecessors possessed: a foreign patron willing to aggressively underwrite a self-coup. When thousands of Somalis took to the streets of Mogadishu to protest state-led land seizures and the expiration of the government’s legal mandate, Mohamud’s response was a chilling display of imported force. Turkish-supplied armored personnel carriers choked major intersections to crush public dissent, while Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter jets dispatched to the capital’s airport flew low over the city to intimidate political dissidents.

The Illusion of Neutral Arbitration

It is against this backdrop of authoritarian entrenchment, violent crackdowns, and foreign military dependency that Turkey’s current “mediation” initiative must be judged. An external actor that supplies the armor, trains the commanders, and flies the fighter jets used to suppress domestic political opposition cannot simultaneously claim the mantle of an honest, neutral broker. The violence that exploded across Mogadishu ahead of planned anti-government demonstrations exposes the true nature of this regime’s “stability”. State security forces have turned their weapons inward, engaging in pitched battles with opposition-allied forces and even launching direct, armed attacks on the residences of former national leaders like Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Hassan Kheyre. To trade fire in residential neighborhoods, displace innocent citizens, and use the national security apparatus to intimidate political rivals is the behavior of a desperate autocracy, not a legitimate government.

The opposition now operating under coalitions like the Somali Future Council and grassroots rescue movements has correctly recognized Turkey’s diplomatic overtures as a coercive trap. Ankara’s ultimate objective in these talks is not to broker a fair, inclusive transition, but to force the opposition and autonomous regional states into total subordination under Mohamud’s illegitimate, extended tenure. Turkey wants a quiet, compliant Mogadishu so its drilling rigs can operate undisturbed.

The consequences of this coordinated overreach are already visible. By dismantling the negotiated, consensus-based federal framework that has prevented total civil collapse for two decades, Mohamud and his Turkish enablers are actively fracturing Somalia’s internal security architecture. As central forces clash with regional loyalists, the only true winner is Al-Shabaab. The terrorist insurgency stands ready to exploit the widening administrative blind spots and security vacuums created by Mohamud’s political selfishness.

International bodies like the United Nations Security Council have issued standard, toothless calls for restraint, but their threshold for condemning a constitutional extension apparently depends on who controls the local airspace. As long as Turkey continues to hold Somalia’s constitutional order hostage to protect its own offshore commercial agreements, any talk of a “negotiated understanding” in Mogadishu remains a dangerous illusion. True stability cannot be bought with external endorsements of expired mandates, nor can it be enforced by foreign fighter jets. If Somalia is to move away from the brink of renewed civil war, the solution must belong entirely to the Somali people free from the coercive, self-serving architecture of Turkish statecraft.

Dayib Sh. Ahmed
Email: Dayib0658@gmail.com
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Dayib is a writer, political analyst and WardheerNews contributor

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Turjumaad ayaa la diyaarinayaa