Turjumaad ayaa la diyaarinayaa

By Abdirashid Hashi

In politics, as in war, the weakest position is often occupied by the leader who confuses force with strength. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, whose mandate has either ended by the plain four-year logic of Article 91 or is, at the very least, now deeply disputed by any generous reading, appears to have made that mistake. By allowing security forces to engage in hours-long urban confrontatio n against former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire, he did not demonstrate control. He exposed insecurity, panic, and strategic overreach.

Article 91 of the Somali Constitution is explicit: the president serves a four-year term from the day he takes the oath. Hassan Sheikh was elected on 15 May 2022. By that constitutional logic, his mandate has expired. Once a leader crosses that line without consensus, his authority changes character. He is no longer merely governing. He is negotiating his continued presence in power. In such a situation, every use of force becomes politically expensive.

The United States understood this immediately. Its statement described the violence in Mogadishu as “reckless” and warned that actions taken in the coming hours and days may have lasting consequences for Somalia’s security, unity, and future. The important word is not “reckless.” The important phrase is “lasting consequences.” Diplomatic language is usually soft on the surface and sharp underneath. In plain English, Washington is signalling that international confidence in Somalia is hanging by a thread.