Abdalla Abdalla warns of a looming danger

Mogadishu (Caasimada Online) – The Deputy Commander of the Somali Police Force, Brigadier General Abdalla Abdalla Mohamed, warned on Friday that the withdrawal of Ugandan troops could jeopardize the security of Mogadishu and the surrounding areas.

“The country is facing a significant security threat that cannot be underestimated. The withdrawal of Ugandan troops will create a security vacuum and will endanger the security of the capital. Our forces are not adequately prepared to take on that responsibility,” Abdalla wrote on his Facebook page .

Abdalla's warning came after Ugandan military officials confirmed that the first batch of their troops, who were in Somalia under the agreement between the two countries, had returned to their homeland. Other troops under that agreement are expected to follow.

The acting spokesperson for the Ugandan military, Colonel Chris Magezi, stated that Ugandan troops participating in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) will also exit the country in different phases, ultimately by the end of 2027.

The commander of the Ugandan forces, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, announced the withdrawal on October 29.

“As we promised, we have begun to withdraw our troops from Somalia. After 20 years of significant bloodshed and great sacrifices, we are handing over security to our Somali brothers,” Kainerugaba wrote on platform X.

} Uganda was the first African country to send troops to Somalia when the African Union operation AMISOM began in 2007. Since then, it has been among the countries contributing the most troops to the African Union operations in Somalia.

Ugandan forces have played a significant role in protecting the transitional government, ensuring the security of Mogadishu, and conducting operations to remove Al-Shabaab from several towns.

Lower Shabelle Bases

The concern over the withdrawal particularly affects Lower Shabelle, where Ugandan forces have bases located along key routes for the movement of Somali and African Union troops.

African Union forces are preparing to take over several bases that will be vacated by Ugandan troops in Somalia under the agreement between the two countries. These bases include Sabiid-Caanoole, Bariire, Awdheegle, and Buulo Nagaad.

It is still unclear who will take over all the bases that Uganda will leave and whether Somali forces have enough soldiers and equipment to ensure the security of those areas.

The African Union Peace and Security Council called in February for a careful coordination of troop movements to avoid a security vacuum that Al-Shabaab could exploit.

Uganda's withdrawal comes at a time when it is still uncertain whether AUSSOM will receive the funding to continue its operations. The African Union has warned that a lack of funding could undermine the support the operation provides to Somalia as its forces take over security responsibilities.

The earlier transition plan for AUSSOM, approved by the United Nations Security Council, stipulated that the operation would continue until the end of 2027, before a significant reduction of troops would begin in 2028. The final withdrawal of the mission's forces is scheduled for the end of 2029, based on the security situation and the level of preparedness of the Somali forces.

If Uganda follows the announced schedule, AUSSOM will lose one of its most experienced units before that reduction begins.

The Somali government forces are conducting operations against Al-Shabaab in the south and central regions of the country, preparing to take over additional security tasks.

The federal government has not yet issued a response regarding Abdalla's assessment of the preparedness of the Somali forces.