Ethiopian Forces Closing in on Mekelle as Ethiopia and Eritrea Cut Ties

Mekelle, Ethiopia – Militia supporting the federal government of Ethiopia have stated that they are approaching the city of Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, after claiming to have taken control of the town of Milazat, which is approximately 20 kilometers southeast of Mekelle.

The group known as Tigray Peace Forces (TPF) has announced on social media that they have captured Milazat, while heavy fighting is still ongoing in Tigray and the surrounding areas.

Reports from the ground indicate that Ethiopian federal forces and their allied militias have rapidly advanced into southern Tigray this week, while opposition forces led by the TPLF are also engaged in battles in other directions.

These clashes have heightened concerns that the Tigray conflict may spill over into the rest of Ethiopia, especially as relations between Addis Ababa and neighboring countries have significantly deteriorated. Tensions escalated after Ethiopia announced on October 1 that it would close its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats from the country.

The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that these diplomats were identified as unnecessary personnel, being accused of involvement in activities that the Ethiopian government described as a direct threat to national security. The diplomats were given 48 hours to leave the country.

Eritrea responded to this action by completely severing its diplomatic ties with Ethiopia, stating that it would respond to Addis Ababa's move in kind.

These decisions have revived the tensions between the two countries, which previously engaged in a border war between 1998 and 2000, and then restored their diplomatic relations in 2018. The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting the armed opposition alliance led by the TPLF. The three countries have denied these accusations.

Eritrea has also accused Ethiopia of supporting Eritrean opposition groups, while the two countries are at odds over several issues, including border security and Ethiopia's interests regarding access to maritime routes.

An analysis published by Reuters indicated that the merging of the internal conflict in Ethiopia and the disputes with neighboring countries is increasing the risk that the war will have effects beyond Ethiopia's borders. Mekelle is now facing increasing pressure as government forces and their allies are getting closer to the city.

Reports from Mekelle have indicated that some banks and businesses have closed, as the public fears that the war will reach the city. Reuters also reported that the new fighting is the most intense in Tigray since the war of 2020–2022.

As the fighting continues, the African Union has called for restraint from both sides, while the main concern is that the Tigray conflict could escalate into a regional dispute involving neighboring countries.