Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis Could Reshape Somalia’s Security Landscape as Regional Fault Lines Deepen

By Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh

A dangerous new chapter may be opening in the Horn of Africa. Renewed tensions between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) are raising fears of another major conflict in northern Ethiopia—one that could extend far beyond Tigray and potentially reshape the security architecture of neighboring Somalia.

For Somalia, the question is particularly consequential: what happens if Ethiopia suddenly needs thousands of troops that are currently deployed across the border? That possibility is no longer merely an abstract strategic concern.

Tensions between Addis Ababa and the TPLF have intensified following the TPLF’s return to political dominance in Tigray and the weakening of the transitional administration supported by the federal government. The developments have further strained the fragile political understanding created by the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which ended two years of devastating war.