ICG Warns Somalia’s War Against Al-Shabaab Has Reached a Stalemate

Mogadishu (WDN) – A new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) has concluded that the war between the Federal Government of Somalia and the militant group Al-Shabaab has once again entered a state of stalemate, following a significant shift in control across territories that were previously recaptured from the group during major offensives in 2022 and 2023.

According to the report, Al-Shabaab has managed to regain a foothold in several areas from which it had earlier been expelled, highlighting the group’s resilience and continued operational strength despite years of sustained military campaigns by Somali and allied forces.

The report notes that while the Federal Government continues to maintain strong defensive positions around Mogadishu and other key strategic cities, mounting pressure on government forces has raised concerns about the sustainability of recent security gains.

ICG identified several factors undermining the government’s efforts to decisively defeat the insurgency. These include shortcomings in military training and force development, persistent political divisions within Somalia’s leadership, and a decline in international support for the country’s security operations.