An unexpected change in the Tigray region conflict

Mekelle (Caasimada Online) — The fighters and leaders of the TPLF were leaving the city of Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, on Saturday as Ethiopian government forces were approaching the city, while also retaking its airport.

A local journalist and residents of Mekelle told AFP that members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) had begun to leave the city, with government facilities and police stations found without security forces.

“The fighters and leaders of the TPLF are leaving Mekelle,” said the journalist, noting that federal forces had not yet been seen inside the city.

On the other hand, Reuters reported on Saturday that Ethiopian federal forces had retaken the Alula Aba Nega airport in Mekelle, according to three sources with knowledge of the situation. The airport was one of the key locations that the TPLF had captured when the new conflict erupted on September 23.

The capture of the airport and the departure of TPLF members indicate a significant shift in the conflict, after Tigray forces had made advances days earlier in neighboring regions.

The conflict erupted on September 23 in northern Ethiopia, when the TPLF and allied forces launched attacks from parts of Afar and Amhara, raising fears of a resurgence of a large-scale war similar to that of 2020-2022.

However, federal forces and government-aligned militias have recently launched counterattacks, pushing back TPLF forces, and then advancing from several directions towards Mekelle.

Reuters reported on Friday that government forces and allied troops have approached Mekelle, with the new fighting becoming the most intense since the peace agreement of 2022.

Fear of chaos

The withdrawal of TPLF forces and officials has raised concerns within Mekelle, where locals fear a loss of order before government troops reach the city.

“I am worried that government and public property is vulnerable to looting, because there are no security forces in the city,” a resident of Mekelle told AFP.

Another person expressed fear that lawlessness could spread throughout the city.

“I fear for my life. We want law and order to be restored quickly,” he said.

The actual situation in many parts of the city and region remains difficult to independently verify, as media access is highly restricted, and there are significant communication blackouts.

The TPLF has long been the dominant force in Tigray, and earlier this year it removed a government-backed administration.

However, the advances currently being made by government forces are pushing the TPLF back into a situation reminiscent of the early days of the 2020 conflict, when federal troops captured Mekelle.

TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael indicated on Thursday that his forces could resort to guerrilla warfare if they lose major cities.

“We are working on a strategy to defeat the enemy wherever we choose,” he said.

The TPLF fought in a similar manner after government forces captured Mekelle in late 2020. The Tigray fighters then retreated to rural areas and eventually regained control of the city in mid-2021.

The crisis spreading in the region

The new conflict is not limited to internal disputes in Ethiopia, but has also caused significant damage to the relationship between Addis Ababa and Eritrea and Egypt.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan of supporting forces opposed to the government. The accused countries have denied supporting the insurgents.

Addis Ababa closed its embassy in Asmara on Thursday and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats. In response, Eritrea announced that it had severed diplomatic ties with Ethiopia.

Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat, while Cairo took similar action.

The conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea has intensified in recent months, with Asmara accusing Addis Ababa of intending to forcefully secure a route to the Red Sea.

Debretsion also linked the ongoing war to regional struggles.

“The war is regional, and it is a war aimed at controlling the Red Sea,” he said.

Regional leaders meeting

As the conflict intensifies, the leaders of Somalia, Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan are set to hold a consultative meeting in the city of New Alamein in Egypt on Sunday.

The President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the President of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki, the President of Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and the Commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, are expected to participate in the meeting.

The spokesperson for the Egyptian presidency stated on Saturday that the four-party meeting will discuss regional issues shared by those countries.

The meeting comes at a time when Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea and Egypt have significantly deteriorated, with Addis Ababa accusing both countries of supporting the TPLF.

The President of Somalia will also participate in the Alamein Africa Forum, which is taking place in Egypt from October 2 to 4, with the forum attended by African leaders and senior officials.

A fragile peace that has collapsed

The TPLF was the dominant force in the coalition that ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took power, leading to a significant decline in the political power of the TPLF.

The tensions arising from that struggle led to the Tigray war of 2020-2022, which became one of the deadliest conflicts in the world in recent years.

The Pretoria Agreement of November 2022 ended the major conflict, but key provisions of that agreement have not been fully implemented.

The fragile stability that the agreement brought has been deteriorating over the past year, and the renewed fighting in September has once again brought Ethiopian government forces to the outskirts of Mekelle.