South West: War, Displacement and Merging Floods Threatening Hundreds of Thousands of Citizens

BAYDHABO (Goobjoog News) — The forces supporting the former president of South West State, Abdicasis Hassan Mohamed (Laftagareen), have spread to new towns and areas in the Bay region, transforming the conflict that was initially confined to the city of Baydhabo into a broader struggle that has negatively impacted the civilians, movement, and humanitarian activities.

Laftagareen's office has announced that his forces have taken control of the four districts of Qansaxdheere, Buurhakaba, Bardaale, and Diinsoor, as well as the area of Awdiinle.

Information confirmed by Goobjoog News indicates that the forces supporting Laftagareen have directly taken over the districts of Qansaxdheere, Buurhakaba, and Bardaale. Independent reports also suggest that they have entered the area of Awdiinle, while the situation in the district of Diinsoor has not yet received complete independent verification.

Qansaxdheere was the first town confirmed to have been captured by Laftagareen's forces. On the other hand, Buurhakaba was taken in a direct battle between those forces and the troops supporting the Federal Government of Somalia and the new administration of South West State, while Bardaale was entered after the previous forces abandoned their positions.

The city of Buurhakaba is located on the vital road connecting Mogadishu and Baydhabo, while Bardaale and Awdiinle are close to the western routes leading into the capital of the Bay region.

The change in control of these areas poses an immediate threat to civilian movement, trade activities, troop deployments, and the delivery of emergency aid.

However, the entry of these forces into the towns does not necessarily mean they have established a fully stable administration.

It is still important to verify who is in control of the district administration centers and police stations, whether the civilian agencies are functioning, and whether public transport and aid agency vehicles can safely use the roads.

The Origin of the Crisis and the Legitimacy Struggle

The current escalating crisis is rooted in a political conflict that has been ongoing for some time, which is between the Federal Government of Somalia and Cabdicasiis Laftagareen.

The federal forces fully took over the security of the city of Baydhabo on March 30, 2026, a move that led Laftagareen to announce that he had resigned from his position. However, he later clarified that this action was forced upon him, still claiming to be the legitimate leader of South West State.

In June of this year, Aadan Maxamed Nuur (Aadan Madoobe) was elected to lead South West State, and his administration was officially recognized by the Federal Government of Somalia. The new movements of Laftagareen's forces indicate that the dispute over the legitimacy of leadership has now escalated into a land struggle and armed confrontation face to face.

The Casualties from the War

The humanitarian toll from the conflict is already clearly visible. A battle that took place inside the city of Baydhabo in August resulted in the deaths of at least four civilians, while 98 others were injured. Another confrontation that occurred in September saw 71 injured individuals taken to the Regional General Hospital in Bay, including 15 women, while one civilian died.

The number of people killed or injured in the recent battles in Qansaxdheere, Buurhakaba, and other surrounding areas has not yet been officially announced. Additionally, there is still no official count regarding the new displaced families, destroyed homes, and the health or educational service centers that have been closed.

In the city of Baydhabo alone, there are approximately 700,000 displaced people, whose lives are entirely dependent on food aid, clean water, and health services. These individuals initially fled severe drought, famine, and areas controlled by Al-Shabaab, and now their previous situation has been compounded by intense fear arising from the battles between government forces and those supporting Laftagareen.

Pressure on Aid Agencies and Hospitals

Changes in control of cities and the closure of roads can severely disrupt relief operations. The district of Buurhakaba has already been one of the cities besieged by Al-Shabaab blockades, which has forced humanitarian agencies to deliver emergency aid via costly airlifts.

New battles or retaliatory attacks could eliminate the limited capacity of aid agencies to provide food, water, and medicine. On the other hand, hospitals in the Bay region are facing excessive pressure, as war injuries are sharing seats, beds, and limited medicines with malnourished children, pregnant women, and other patients in emergency conditions.

The Risk of Flooding and Climate Change

This conflict comes at a time when the Deyr rains, associated with the El Niño climate phenomenon, have fallen in parts of the region, increasing the risk of large-scale flooding.

These heavy rains can cut off roads, cause destruction to homes and displacement camps, and disrupt emergency relief efforts.

The combination of conflict, displacement, and flooding can lead to a humanitarian disaster far worse than before. Families who previously fled the fighting are at risk of being displaced again by floods, while aid agencies find it difficult to reach areas where roads have been cut off or are controlled by armed groups.

The most vulnerable people include malnourished children, pregnant women, the elderly, and communities living in displacement camps.

Flooding can also contaminate drinking water sources, leaving the land with a heightened risk of outbreaks of diseases such as cholera, severe diarrhea, and malaria. If the fighting continues and the flooding worsens, the Bay region could simultaneously face new displacement, severe food shortages, and disease outbreaks. Civilians are becoming the primary victims bearing the consequences of conflict and natural disasters. Therefore, an urgent political solution is essential to save the lives of millions of people.