International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons: An Unquantifiable Threat

September 26 reminds the world that the threat of nuclear weapons is not limited to the site of an explosion. It can reach people, agriculture, and the lives of countries not involved in conflict.

The debate over nuclear weapons often revolves around the power of states and the balance of their military forces. However, behind that debate lies a serious question: what happens to people and their environment if these weapons are used?

The United Nations General Assembly designated September 26, 2013, as the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons. This day provides an opportunity to reflect on the devastating legacy of the past, the ongoing dangers, and the efforts to prevent the use of these dangerous weapons again.

Security based on the threat of retaliation For a long time, nuclear-armed states have partially based their security on the deterrence of nuclear weapons: deterring an enemy from attacking by demonstrating that their attack could be met with devastating retaliation. This calculation relies on both sides accurately understanding each other's capabilities and intentions.

That is where the vulnerability lies. Political tensions, misinterpreted information, or unverified warnings can put leaders in a position to make grave decisions in a short time.

Weapons intended to deter war can, when the calculations go wrong, become the source of the disaster feared. How can the smoke of war reach agriculture?

The damage from nuclear war may not be limited to the destruction and radiation from explosions. Research based on climate and food production models has examined what could happen if fires ignited in targeted cities send large amounts of black smoke into the upper atmosphere.

This smoke reaching the upper layer of the atmosphere, the stratosphere, could reduce the sunlight reaching the earth. The decrease in light and temperature changes could harm the production of crops, fish, and livestock.

This potential impact is part of what is known as nuclear winter. The scale of the disaster would depend on the scale of the war and the amount of smoke entering the atmosphere; it is a scientific prediction, not an event that has previously occurred in the world at that level.

Countries far from the battlefield could also face food shortages. Smoke entering the atmosphere and the disruption to food production do not adhere to political boundaries.

The lessons of Hiroshima and Nagasaki What is certain, and cannot be modeled, is the devastation caused by the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The explosions killed many people, destroyed cities, and left long-lasting injuries and illnesses among survivors.

The survivors, known as hibakusha, have shared with the world what they witnessed and the effects of the injuries and radiation on their lives. Japanese Red Cross hospitals continued to care for people suffering from health problems caused by the atomic bombings for decades afterward, including various types of cancer.

Their testimonies bring back to the forefront the debate on disarmament that affects those impacted by political decisions. Technology and human decision-making Artificial intelligence, cyberattacks, and advancements in weapon systems raise new questions about the reliability of security warnings.

If incorrect information or digital interference affects a warning system, the time available for verifying the information becomes crucial. This does not mean that artificial intelligence alone determines the use of nuclear weapons as devastating weapons.

The threat can arise from how information is collected, assessed, and presented to decision-makers, especially during times of heightened tension. The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) has indicated that the integration of these technologies and nuclear systems could increase the risk of escalating crises.

Treaties and the challenges of their implementation The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is one of the main pillars of international regulations concerning this issue. Open for signature in 1968, it entered into force in 1970.

The treaty addresses the prevention of the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and disarmament efforts. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) was adopted in 2017 and entered into force in 2021.

It prohibits states parties, among other things, from developing, testing, possessing, using, and threatening to use nuclear weapons. The scope of this prohibition and how it can be implemented depends on the states that join the treaty and the actions they take.

Treaties can establish obligations and negotiation processes. However, reducing the threat also requires states to strengthen trust...