Shabelle River exceeds high flood-risk level at Jowhar as more rain threatens central Somalia

Mogadishu (HOL) — The Shabelle River has risen above the high flood-risk threshold at Jowhar and is nearing bankfull level, raising concerns of possible flooding in parts of Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions.

A flood advisory issued Monday by FAO’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management unit (WALIM), in cooperation with the Somali Disaster Management Agency, said the river reached 5.37 meters at Jowhar, nearly 1 meter higher than two days earlier.

The latest SWALIM monitoring showed Jowhar at 5.38 meters on Oct. 14, remaining above the high-risk threshold and close to bankfull.

Authorities warned that flooding through existing breaks in the riverbank between Jowhar and Balcad was likely to continue and could spread into nearby villages and farmland.

Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 millimeters was forecast across much of Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle from Oct. 13-19, with isolated areas potentially receiving between 100 and 150 millimeters.

“With the river already above the high flood risk level at Jowhar, more water arriving from Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti and 50–100 mm of local rain forecast this week, the level at Jowhar is likely to reach bankfull in the coming days,” the advisory said.

Heavy rainfall has already affected central Somalia and parts of the Shabelle catchment in neighboring Ethiopia.

Satellite estimates showed more than 100 millimeters of rain between Oct. 1 and 11 across parts of Hiiraan, Galgaduud and Ethiopia’s Gode-Kelafo area, more than twice the normal amount for the period, according to SWALIM.

River levels are also increasing farther upstream.

At Belet Weyne, the Shabelle rose by 38 centimeters to 3.98 meters, while Bulo Burti increased by the same amount to 3.90 meters. Both remained about 2.5 meters below their moderate flood-risk threshold of 6.50 meters.

At Deefow, near the Ethiopian border, the river rose by 45 centimeters to 2.87 meters, which SWALIM described as an indication that additional water was entering Somalia from upstream.

By Oct. 14, Belet Weyne had risen further to 4.40 meters and Deefow to 3.45 meters, according to FAO’s river-monitoring system.