Somalia: Ethiopia Blamed for Role in Southwest State Conflict

MOGADISHU, Somalia — A deepening security controversy is unfolding across southern Somalia following reports that Ethiopian military forces have withdrawn from key strategic towns in the Bay and Bakool regions, leaving security vacuums that Al-Shabaab militants have rapidly exploited.

The developments, which have intensified regional tensions and drawn scrutiny from international donors, center on allegations that Ethiopian troops abandoned several positions without combat engagement.

While a notable handover occurred in August when Ethiopian forces formally transferred a military base in Burhakaba to the Somali National Army (SNA), other recent troop movements have left settlements vulnerable and sparked widespread concern among local communities.

The officials in Southwest State called for an independent international investigation into the allegations, including the circumstances surrounding the role of Ethiopian forces in the ongoing conflict and foreign financial interference.

Amid the withdrawals, local and regional sources have alleged that Ethiopian troops stationed in the southwest used payments linked to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to influence local commanders and facilitate the handover of territory to Al-Shabaab.

However, their emergence has added fuel to an already tension in Southwest state and the volatile geopolitical climate in the Horn of Africa, intersecting with existing tensions over the UAE’s broader regional footprint in Somalia, Sudan, and along the Ethiopia-Eritrea axis.

The sudden shift in territorial control has placed international funding mechanisms under intense public and political pressure.

Most Ethiopian forces in Somalia operate under the umbrella of African Union peace support missions, which rely heavily on financial backing from Western taxpayers. In April 2026, the European Union approved an additional €75 million for the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), bringing total EU support for successive AU missions in the country to nearly €2.8 billion since 2007.

The primary objective of this financial assistance is to strengthen counterterrorism operations, protect civilians, and build sustainable security infrastructure. However, when strategically vital positions are vacated—leaving security gaps that extremists promptly fill—international partners are facing hard questions regarding operational oversight, transparency, and accountability.

Critics and regional security experts argue that Western governments must demand clearer safeguards to ensure that foreign-funded security assets are not compromised by uncoordinated withdrawals or questionable local command decisions.

As Al-Shabaab seeks to capitalize on the shifting military landscape, pressure is mounting on the African Union, Ethiopian military command, the Somali federal government, and international donors to provide clear, transparent accounts of recent troop deployments and handovers.

For Somalia, the immediate stakes are high, as every abandoned post threatens to reverse hard-won territorial gains against the militant group. For international partners, the central dilemma remains unresolved: how to guarantee that billions of dollars in foreign security aid yield accountable, stable outcomes on the ground.