Somalia opposition agrees to talks with president in test of readiness for electoral breakthrough

MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia’s opposition National Salvation Forum has agreed to give President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud one final opportunity to resolve the country’s protracted political dispute through dialogue, signalling a possible breakthrough in a standoff over constitutional amendments, electoral arrangements and the distribution of political power.

The decision followed a series of meetings in Mogadishu among opposition figures who have repeatedly clashed with Mohamud over his administration’s proposed constitutional changes and plans for a new electoral framework. Previous attempts to negotiate a settlement collapsed, with the opposition accusing the president of pursuing unilateral reforms that could entrench his political influence and compromise the prospects of a credible, competitive election.

At the centre of the dispute are constitutional amendments and the proposed electoral system, which opposition leaders argue could be manipulated to facilitate Mohamud’s return to office for a third term while marginalising potential challengers. They contend that the government’s approach threatens political pluralism and undermines the constitutional principles underpinning Somalia’s fragile federal system.

The opposition’s latest decision reflects a willingness to test whether the president is prepared to adopt a more conciliatory approach and address the substantive disagreements that derailed previous negotiations. However, the agreement to resume dialogue does not necessarily signal a resolution of the differences or an endorsement of the government’s proposed reforms.

The forum has emphasised that an agreement reached through direct negotiations among Somalis would be preferable to one brokered by foreign governments or international mediators. It argues that resolving the crisis through an inclusive, domestically led political process would strengthen national ownership, protect Somalia’s sovereignty and enhance the legitimacy of any eventual settlement.

As an initial step, the opposition has appointed a three-member delegation to engage with a government technical committee on the 14th of this month. The two committees are expected to negotiate a mutually acceptable agenda for the proposed talks, establishing the issues, priorities and framework to be addressed by the political leadership.

The opposition delegation comprises former Galmudug state president Abdikarim Hussein Guled and lawmakers Abdirahman Abdishakur and Abdullahi Arab.

The latest initiative follows a series of meetings between opposition representatives and Mahad Salad, director of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), who reportedly urged them to accept Mohamud’s invitation and give the president a final opportunity to resolve the impasse through negotiations.

Salad’s intervention comes amid growing indications of concern within the president’s inner circle over the direction of the country’s political and security affairs. According to reports, the intelligence chief and other figures close to the presidency have been urging Mohamud to reconsider his confrontational approach, warning that the continued political deadlock could push the country towards deeper instability and jeopardise the institutional gains made since the reconstruction of the Somali state began more than two decades ago.

Those concerns are particularly acute given Somalia’s increasingly precarious security environment. The ongoing withdrawal of Ugandan forces and the persistent threat posed by Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-linked militant group waging an insurgency against the government, have heightened concerns about the country’s capacity to sustain security operations and protect the progress achieved with decades of international assistance.

A prolonged political crisis risks compounding these vulnerabilities by diverting government attention from security priorities, weakening cooperation between federal and regional authorities and undermining the political cohesion required to confront the insurgency. It could also complicate relations with international partners whose financial, logistical and security assistance remains important to Somalia’s state-building and stabilisation efforts.

The latest agreement, however, does not establish whether Puntland and Jubaland will participate in the proposed negotiations. The leaders of the two federal member states have previously ruled out talks with Mohamud, citing the repeated collapse of earlier negotiations and their opposition to the federal government’s handling of constitutional and electoral reforms.

Puntland and Jubaland, together with prominent opposition figures, form the Somali Future Council, a political alliance that has emerged as a major counterweight to the federal government’s approach to constitutional reform, electoral arrangements and relations between Mogadishu and the federal member states.

Their position could prove decisive in determining whether the proposed dialogue develops into a comprehensive political settlement or remains a limited understanding between the presidency and sections of the opposition. Without the participation or support of the two regional administrations, any agreement could face questions over its inclusiveness and political legitimacy.

For now, the appointment of technical committees offers a tentative opening to break the cycle of confrontation that has repeatedly paralysed Somalia’s political process. But the most difficult questions remain unresolved: the scope of constitutional amendments, the legitimacy and design of the electoral framework, the balance of authority between federal and regional governments, and guarantees that the next electoral process will be genuinely competitive.

Whether Mohamud is prepared to make meaningful concessions, and whether his opponents are willing to negotiate a workable compromise, will determine whether this latest initiative produces a lasting political settlement or becomes another failed attempt at reconciliation.

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