Somalia’s Unilateral Hirshabelle Election Pushes Hiiraan Toward a Parallel Administration

BELEDWEYNE (WDN)- President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s decision to push through Ali Guudlawe’s re-election as Hirshabelle president without broad political consensus has brought the federal member state closer to a political crisis. Hiiraan’s opposition leaders are mobilizing around an alternative administration in Beledweyne, challenging Jowhar’s authority and raising the possibility that opposition in parts of Middle Shabelle could further undermine Hirshabelle’s political unity.

Former National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) Director and Member of Parliament Abdullahi Mohamed (Sanbaloolshe), accompanied by politician Mohamed Dahir, arrived in Beledweyne as opposition to the Hirshabelle administration intensified.

Sanbaloolshe entered the Hiiraan regional capital from the Ethiopian border town of Feer-Feer, accompanied by a substantial contingent of armed personnel and military vehicles. Although he has not publicly disclosed the full purpose of his visit, he has reportedly held consultations with traditional elders, political figures and leaders of the growing opposition movement against the Hirshabelle administration.

His arrival comes amid an increasingly volatile political standoff following the controversial election that returned President Ali Guudlawe to office in Jowhar. Critics argue that the process was pushed through by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Federal Government without the necessary political consensus, particularly among political stakeholders in Hiiraan.

The controversy has transformed what should have been a regional leadership transition into a wider confrontation over political representation, federal authority and the future of Hirshabelle.

Hiiraan Rejects Jowhar’s Political Authority

Speaking recently in Nairobi, Sanbaloolshe challenged the legitimacy of the Hirshabelle election, insisting that the process lacked genuine participation and consultation. He accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Ali Guudlawe and the regional electoral commission of overseeing an election that did not reflect the political will of the people.

Sanbaloolshe argued that Hiiraan’s political unity was essential to preserving Hirshabelle, while suggesting that stakeholders who had been excluded from the political process were preparing to establish what he described as a “new Hirshabelle.” He maintained that the opposition’s position had not changed and that the political grievances which led them to reject the election remained unresolved.

Sanbaloolshe has emerged as one of the most prominent figures opposing the manner in which the regional administration was formed. His arrival in Beledweyne has attracted considerable attention, particularly as political and security developments suggest that the opposition may be moving beyond verbal objections towards establishing an alternative political structure.

The situation has become more complicated following reports that armed forces aligned with the opposition movement recently took control of the Hiiraan regional administration headquarters at Lama-Galay military camp in Beledweyne.

The Prospect of a Parallel Administration

The central issue is whether Hiiraan’s opposition leaders will move beyond rejecting Guudlawe’s presidency and establish an alternative political authority in Beledweyne.

Ali Guudlawe’s administration, based in Jowhar, continues to claim authority over the entire Hirshabelle state, comprising Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle. However, political leaders in Hiiraan who reject the disputed election are increasingly discussing a new political arrangement, with Beledweyne potentially becoming its centre.

This does not mean that a second federal member state has already been formally established. Rather, it reflects an emerging political movement seeking to establish a parallel authority that would challenge Jowhar’s legitimacy and control.

The implications could extend beyond Hiiraan. If opposition to Guudlawe gains momentum, parts of Middle Shabelle could also align with the alternative political arrangement. This would leave Somalia facing two rival political structures claiming to represent the same federal member state, with competing leadership, institutions and potentially security arrangements.

The fundamental problem is that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s support for Guudlawe may have secured a leadership outcome in Jowhar, but it has not resolved the question of political representation or secured acceptance of the election across Hirshabelle.

Hassan Sheikh’s Political Gamble

The Hirshabelle crisis reflects the wider political confrontation between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Federal Government and its critics over constitutional and electoral arrangements.

Rather than building consensus among regional stakeholders, the government’s handling of the Hirshabelle election has reinforced perceptions that Mogadishu is willing to use its federal influence to determine regional leadership outcomes.

This approach carries serious consequences for Somalia’s federal system. Federal Member States cannot function effectively when their political leadership is perceived as the product of unilateral decisions made in Mogadishu rather than a locally accepted political agreement.

The emerging crisis demonstrates that installing a president through a contested election does not automatically establish political legitimacy or guarantee effective control over the territory he is expected to govern.

For Sanbaloolshe and other opposition figures, the immediate challenge is whether they can translate public discontent into a credible, inclusive and politically sustainable alternative. For President Hassan Sheikh and Guudlawe, the challenge is whether they can govern a region where significant political constituencies reject the legitimacy of the process that returned them to power.

Ultimately, Hirshabelle’s crisis is the consequence of an electoral process that failed to secure political consensus. Unless Mogadishu and the opposing Hiiraan leadership negotiate a settlement, the region risks developing competing centres of authority, further weakening Somalia’s already fragile federal system.

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