The UN's exit from Somalia's political arena: What comes next?

After more than three decades, the United Nations political mission in Somalia closes today. The country asked for it. The harder question is whether its institutions are ready.

The UN Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) concludes its mandate on 31 October 2026.

On October 31, 2026, the UN ends its political mission in Somalia. A ceremony was held in Mogadishu earlier that week to commemorate the conclusion of 13 years of work that began with the creation of UNSOM in 2013. If you go back a little further, the story is older. In 1995, a political office was established by the UN for Somalia. Thus, it is not the end of a single mission when the doors close. It's the end of a long-standing habit.

People are already asking what happens now. It's a fair question, and I don't think the honest answer is either "everything will be fine" or "the country will fall apart."

And they do remain. After the mandate expires, the UN has stated that it will continue to support Somalia. Humanitarian organizations, development initiatives, clinic staff, and food distributors all continue to exist. The political office, which consisted of a small team of advisors and diplomats tasked with reaching out to all parties, negotiating agreements, and documenting issues, disappears.

That final point, in my opinion, is more important than we realize. Anyone who has followed Somali politics is aware of how frequently the real struggle is not with Al-Shabaab but rather between Mogadishu and the federal member states over issues like elections, the constitution, and power.

Someone had to sit in the middle and be trusted by both parties when those discussions broke down in the past. Although it wasn't flawless, the UN was typically trusted enough to bring people together.

Now, who does that? The Union of Africa?

adjacent governments? The Gulf states, Turkey?

Everyone in the room is aware of their shared interests in Somalia.

Examining another nation that experienced a similar situation is beneficial. I keep thinking about Liberia as an example. After fifteen years, UNMIL, the UN peacekeeping force stationed there, came to an end in March 2018. Liberia had recently accomplished something that many had doubted it could: in 2017, a president peacefully transferred power to a successor through an election, something that hadn't happened in decades.

The exit was hailed as evidence of the nation's maturity. And it had, in certain respects. However, the institutions that were meant to keep things together proved to be weaker than the festivities suggested as Liberia battled complaints of corruption, growing costs, and street demonstrations in the years that followed. It is crucial to note that the nation did not return to war. However, the blue helmets' departure did not end the quiet process of reestablishing trust.

Here, I should exercise caution. The closure in Somalia is a political mission, and UNMIL was a peacekeeping force with soldiers and police; the two are not the same. Liberia did not have an ongoing insurgency in 2018, but Somalia does. The lesson is still applicable, though.

So where does Somalia stand? I'd say there are three things worth watching.

The first is the election. The entire transition will appear to be successful if the major players agree to move on to the next round. We will soon learn the practical consequences of the UN's absence if it results in a disagreement over the regulations.

Thirdly, there is security. Al-Shabaab has not disappeared, and the African Union has not yet completed the transfer of security responsibilities. Weakness in the military and political disputes feed each other. Every time leaders engage in combat, the rebels gain ground.