Baidoa at the Brink: Federal Force Risks Turning Political Crisis into a War

As Laftagareen Forces Push into Baidoa, Mogadishu Faces a Choice: Reconciliation or a Battle It May Not Be Able to Control

BAIDOA (WDN) — Heavy fighting erupted in Baidoa on Monday as forces loyal to former South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen clashed with federal and South West forces, sending residents into their homes and pushing the city closer to a potentially prolonged political war.

The fighting is the latest and most serious escalation in a dispute that has been building for months. Local reports said Laftagareen-aligned forces entered parts of Baidoa, while federal and South West forces defended their positions. Both sides claimed military gains, but the battlefield situation and casualty figures remained unclear.

The South West administration and the Federal Government described the attackers as armed groups and repeated allegations of links to Al-Shabaab. Laftagareen’s camp, meanwhile, presented the fighting as part of its campaign to regain control of Baidoa. Neither side’s competing claims have been independently verified.

A Political Dispute That Has Become a Military Confrontation

What began as a political struggle over the leadership and future of South West State has increasingly become a confrontation between armed Somali forces.

Federal forces took control of Baidoa in March, after which Laftagareen resigned. A federal-backed administration led by Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur Madobe subsequently emerged. Laftagareen and his supporters rejected the new political arrangement. Since then, the city has repeatedly been drawn into armed clashes.

Fighting on August 17 was followed by another major confrontation on September 3. On that occasion, the Associated Press reported that Bay Regional Hospital received 24 wounded people and one civilian who died, while residents described heavy gunfire and civilians fleeing affected neighbourhoods. Monday’s fighting shows that the confrontation has not been contained.

The Risk Mogadishu May Be Creating for Itself

The Federal Government now faces a difficult choice. It can continue treating the dispute primarily as a security problem and attempt to defeat Laftagareen’s forces militarily—or it can pursue a political settlement aimed at removing the conflict from the battlefield.

The first approach carries a serious risk. Laftagareen’s forces have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to return to the fight and penetrate areas around or inside Baidoa. Their supporters describe themselves as fighting to restore their political authority and remove federal forces from the city. In August, a spokesman for the former South West president explicitly said their campaign would continue until federal forces were expelled from Baidoa.

That means every additional military confrontation could deepen local grievances, widen the conflict and make reconciliation more difficult. A federal military victory in Baidoa may therefore prove far easier to declare than to sustain.

Could Force Ultimately Hand Baidoa Back to Laftagareen?

The most important question is what happens after the fighting. Even if federal and South West forces succeed in holding government positions today, they still face a political constituency supporting Laftagareen and armed forces capable of returning to the battlefield.

A prolonged confrontation could gradually transform the dispute from a struggle over political leadership into a broader conflict involving communities, clans and competing claims to legitimacy. That is precisely the scenario Somalia’s political leadership should seek to prevent.

An extended war in Baidoa could also divert federal security forces from the fight against Al-Shabaab, expose civilians to greater danger and threaten humanitarian operations in a city that serves as a major humanitarian hub for people displaced by conflict and drought.

Reconciliation Is the Alternative

The Federal Government has a political alternative: reconciliation before escalation becomes irreversible. BREAKING NEWS: Southwest Reconciliation Efforts Gain Momentum as Laftagareen Signals Path Toward Political Settlement – WardheerNews an opportunity my good friend President Hassan refused even to consider – very sad indeed.

That would require direct negotiations with Laftagareen and other South West stakeholders, guarantees for civilian protection, agreement on the status of security forces and a political framework for determining the legitimate leadership and future administration of the state.

Such a process would not mean accepting every demand made by Laftagareen’s camp. Nor would it require abandoning the federal government’s position. It would mean recognising a basic political reality: a dispute that has repeatedly returned to the battlefield cannot be permanently solved by military deployments alone.

The African Union and other international partners also face a test. They can help facilitate a political process rather than becoming drawn into a domestic struggle over who controls Baidoa. Previous analysis has already warned that the crisis risks escalating into a wider conflict and has raised concerns about the neutrality of international security actors.

Baidoa Does Not Need Another War

The latest fighting should therefore be treated as a warning, not simply another military episode. Every hour of fighting makes reconciliation harder. Every civilian forced to hide in a home deepens public fear. Every soldier killed narrows the political space for compromise.

And if the Federal Government continues to rely primarily on military force, it risks creating the very outcome it is trying to prevent: a prolonged conflict in which Laftagareen’s forces gain greater political momentum by presenting themselves as the force resisting federal control.

Baidoa cannot be permanently secured by defeating one side on the battlefield. It can only be stabilised through a political settlement that gives its people a stake in the future of their city and state. For Mogadishu, the choice is increasingly stark: reconciliation now, or risk turning Baidoa into a war that neither side can easily end.

WardheerNews