Baidoa War Deepens as Political Settlement Remains Elusive

Failed Nairobi Initiative, Renewed Fighting and Alleged Turkish Airstrikes Leave Civilians Paying the Price

Baidoa (WDN) — The renewed fighting in Baydhabo has exposed the deeper political dispute behind the conflict, raising questions about why a crisis that could have been addressed through negotiations has instead been allowed to escalate into repeated armed confrontation.

At the heart of the dispute is the Federal Government’s decision earlier this year to deploy forces to Baydhabo and remove former Southwest State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen from power. While the government presented the intervention as necessary to restore stability, Laftagareen’s supporters viewed it as a deliberate attempt to forcibly change Southwest State’s leadership and bring the state under direct control of Mogadishu.

The confrontation has since evolved into a prolonged armed struggle between federal forces and forces aligned with Laftagareen. Aden Mohamed Nur Madobe , who now heads the federal-backed administration, has remained in Baydhabo amid heightened security, with his administration operating under heavy protection offered by UNSOM.

A Peace Proposal That Never Took Off

One of the most significant but less publicly discussed attempts to resolve the crisis came through a delegation led by a former Speaker of the House of the People Dr. Mursal and several heavy weight members of Parliament, who met Laftagareen in Nairobi.

According to people familiar with the discussions, the meetings produced a possible political formula under which both Laftagareen and Aden Madobe would step aside, paving the way for a transitional administration to govern South West State until a fair and credible election could be held.

The proposal offered a potential exit from the confrontation: neither rival would retain control, and the people of South West State would ultimately decide their leadership through an electoral process.

But the initiative failed to gain the necessary political backing from Mogadishu. According to those involved in the effort, the proposal was effectively rejected by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government, and the military confrontation continued.

The result has been another cycle of fighting in which political disagreements have increasingly been settled through military pressure rather than negotiation.

Baidoa Pays the Price

The latest fighting on September 28 again pitted federal and allied forces against forces associated with Laftagareen. The two sides have offered competing accounts of who initiated the clashes.

What is increasingly difficult to dispute, however, is the cost to civilians.

UNICEF said on September 30 that children had been killed and injured in the latest violence and that a health facility had been damaged. The agency warned that insecurity was restricting access to health care and other essential services at a time when families are already facing displacement, food insecurity and severe child malnutrition.

Earlier fighting has also overwhelmed medical services. Reports from Baidoa said civilians struggled to move around the city and reach hospitals as fighting disrupted roads and normal activity.

South West State was already facing major humanitarian pressures, including displacement, food insecurity and inadequate access to basic services. Renewed fighting risks producing another wave of displacement and further restricting humanitarian access.

The humanitarian situation is particularly concerning as Somalia enters the Deyr rainy season. The British government announced £5 million in new humanitarian assistance on September 24 to help vulnerable Somali communities prepare for anticipated El Niño-related flooding, with support expected to reach up to 600,000 people and help keep essential health, nutrition, water and sanitation services operating.

The Turkish Question

The role of Türkiye has become another major source of controversy.

Laftagareen-aligned officials and other local sources have accused Türkiye of using F-16 fighter jets and drones during the fighting in support of federal forces. Those allegations have been reported in connection with both the September 3 and September 28 clashes. However, the identity of the aircraft responsible and the chain of command behind any reported airstrikes have not been independently established.

That uncertainty makes the issue all the more important.

Türkiye is one of Somalia’s most important military partners, and its involvement in training and supporting Somali security forces is publicly known. But the reported use of Turkish military capabilities in a domestic political confrontation would raise serious questions about the boundaries between counterterrorism cooperation and Somalia’s internal political disputes.

Why should foreign military assets be drawn into a conflict between Somali political factions? That is a question that requires a clear and credible answer.

As the fighting continues, another opportunity for negotiations is emerging.

The same group of Somali political figures involved in earlier mediation efforts is expected to travel to Baydhabo to restart talks between the competing sides. Their renewed effort comes after repeated rounds of fighting have failed to produce a decisive political outcome.

The South West State Council for Peace, Unity and Development has also been conducting mediation efforts, including meetings with rival political actors, and has called for a peaceful resolution to the dispute.

The new initiative offers another chance to return the conflict to the negotiating table. The central question now is whether the Federal Government will accept that the military route has failed to resolve the political dispute and allow a negotiated settlement to take precedence.

A War Without a Political Exit

Britain has expressed concern about the fighting and stressed the need for restraint and political dialogue. UNICEF has similarly focused on protecting children, schools, health facilities and humanitarian access.

The message from the humanitarian community is increasingly clear: whatever the political disagreements, civilians cannot continue to bear the consequences. Baidoa’s crisis is therefore no longer simply a battle for control of a city. It is a test of whether Somalia’s political disputes can be resolved through negotiation rather than force.

For the people of Baydhabo, the choice is painfully simple. Another military victory cannot deliver lasting political legitimacy. Only a negotiated settlement followed by a credible vote can give South West State a durable political future.

WardheerNews