Crisis Group warns Somali towns at risk as AU mission shrinks

Mogadishu, Somalia — Several Somali towns face heightened vulnerability to Al-Shabaab as African Union troops scale back and UN logistical support winds down, the International Crisis Group warned , saying some territorial losses may be difficult to avoid.

The Brussels-based conflict-monitoring organisation singled out Qoryoley in Lower Shabelle and Jalalaqsi in Hirshabelle as locations that could come under intense pressure if foreign forces withdraw without adequate replacements.

The warning comes as Somalia and its international partners prepare for a major overhaul of the security architecture that has sustained the campaign against Al-Shabaab for nearly two decades.

The United States agreed this month to extend support for the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) by an additional 12 months rather than ending it on December 31.

The drawdown is now expected to begin in January 2027 , giving Somalia, the African Union and international partners more time to prepare for the transition.

UNSOS provides food, water, fuel, transport and other logistical support that enable the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) to maintain 49 locations across southern and central Somalia.

Crisis Group warned the AU mission would struggle to operate in anything resembling its current form without that logistical network.

Vulnerable towns

In Lower Shabelle, Uganda maintains more than a dozen bases that could become difficult to sustain once UN logistical support ends.

Crisis Group said smaller towns surrounded by Al-Shabaab positions, including Qoryoley, “could be at risk of falling to the insurgents” if AU contingents withdraw.

Parts of Hirshabelle face similar pressure because Al-Shabaab has concentrated more forces in the region since 2025, threatening towns along major transport routes, including Jalalaqsi.

The report cautioned that even localised territorial losses could give Al-Shabaab renewed momentum, while control of roads and economic centres could provide additional revenue for the group.

Crisis Group stopped short of predicting the collapse of Somalia’s federal government or the loss of major cities.

It said Somali troops working alongside bilateral foreign partners could protect key population centres, infrastructure and supply routes, although some withdrawal from current AU-held positions appeared likely.

Bilateral forces

Somalia’s future security architecture is likely to rely increasingly on bilateral defence arrangements with regional partners, particularly Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia, Crisis Group said.

Mogadishu has established agreements with all three countries that could allow their troops to remain deployed even if the broader AU mission contracts or eventually ends.

Kenya and Ethiopia are likely to consolidate forces closer to their borders, where they have longstanding security interests linked to Al-Shabaab, while Uganda could focus more heavily on Mogadishu and surrounding areas, according to the report.

Smaller troop contributors such as Burundi and Djibouti may find it harder to maintain deployments without additional financial and logistical support.

Türkiye is expected to remain central to Somalia’s security structure through training and military deployments, while the United States intends to maintain bilateral counter-terrorism operations.

Crisis Group described such partnerships as the most realistic short-term alternative to the multilateral system, but urged the Somali government to establish a regular forum with foreign partners to coordinate responsibility for protecting towns, major roads and strategic infrastructure.

Hold ground first

The organisation urged Mogadishu to prioritise holding existing territory rather than launching major new offensives while the transition remains unsettled.

Mogadishu said in August that about 14,000 Somali troops were available for military operations, and Crisis Group suggested some could deploy to positions expected to be vacated by AU forces.

However, it cautioned that Somali units generally have less equipment and support than foreign contingents, making a direct one-for-one substitution a “hazardous proposition”.

Several positions previously transferred from AU contingents to Somali forces later fell to Al-Shabaab, while national operations continue to rely heavily on foreign intelligence, air power, transport and logistics.

The report also linked the security transition to Somalia’s political disputes , saying tensions between the federal government and the federal member states of Puntland and Jubaland have hindered efforts to build a unified national security structure.

At the same time, the dispute over upcoming national elections risks further complicating preparations for the drawdown.

Crisis Group urged political leaders to resolve the electoral dispute and include federal member states in discussions over future security arrangements.

It said the additional year of UN support allows Somalia and its partners to develop a replacement system that could begin operating as early as the second half of 2027.

But the extension postpones rather than eliminates the challenge, Crisis Group warned, saying a poorly managed transition could leave security gaps for Al-Shabaab to exploit as the multilateral system contracts.