Can the New War in Ethiopia Create a Security Vacuum in Somalia?

The renewed conflict in northern Ethiopia is raising concerns about the future of Ethiopian troops operating in Somalia. A report published by Bloomberg stated that Addis Ababa plans to withdraw more than 3,000 soldiers from Somalia to be used in the internal conflict in Ethiopia, although the Somali government has not yet received official notification.

Ethiopian forces operate in Somalia under two frameworks: some are part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), while others are in the country under bilateral agreements.

They have key positions in the regions of Bay, Bakool, Hiiraan, and areas near the border, and recently, AUSSOM units stationed in Beledweyne and Halgan were replaced.

It is still unclear whether the troops planned for withdrawal from Somalia are AUSSOM forces, those under bilateral agreements, or both. Addis Ababa has not officially announced the withdrawal plan, while an official from the Somali Ministry of Defense stated that there has been no notification of troop withdrawal in Mogadishu.

If the withdrawal is rapid and not replaced by Somali or AUSSOM troops, Al-Shabaab may seize the opportunity to attack the bases being vacated, supply routes, and towns near the borders.

Ethiopia took a similar step when the Tigray conflict began in 2020, when thousands of soldiers under bilateral agreements in Somalia were returned to their country. Experts have previously warned that the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops could create a vacuum that Al-Shabaab could exploit.

The threat is not limited to military bases alone, but Ethiopia plays a crucial role in securing the long border between the two countries, intelligence sharing, and restricting the movement of Al-Shabaab between Bakool, Gedo, and the Somali Regional State. If Ethiopian troops, aircraft, and intelligence capabilities are diverted to Tigray, Amhara, and Afar, the pressure on border crossings will decrease.

This comes at a time when AUSSOM has already faced unstable funding and logistical support. The United States has granted the United Nations an additional year to gradually wind down operational support, but the future of food, fuel, health, and transport that the troops rely on remains uncertain.

The conflict in Ethiopia could also lead to displacement, economic downturn, and the spread of arms across regional borders, with tens of thousands already displaced by the fighting in Afar, while relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have completely collapsed.

Therefore, if the internal conflict in Ethiopia turns into a regional war, it may become difficult for Addis Ababa to maintain its military and diplomatic role in Somalia.