Ethiopia-style guerrilla insurgencies could emerge in Somalia: official

MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia could face the emergence of Ethiopia-style guerrilla factions in several regions as political rivalries deepen and competing power centres reportedly seek military backing, former Somali intelligence chief Abdirahman Turyare warned on Friday.

Turyare, who currently serves as Somalia’s envoy to the Islamic Military Counter-Terrorism Coalition, cautioned that armed movements resembling those operating in Ethiopia’s Tigray, Amhara and Oromia regions could emerge in Somalia, particularly in Hiran, Middle Shabelle and Bay.

He warned that the potential factions could eventually forge alliances with Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-linked militant group waging an insurgency against Somalia’s federal government, and urged authorities to prevent their emergence before they develop into a broader security threat.

Turyare also issued a stark warning to those allegedly seeking to establish the armed factions, cautioning them against gambling with their lives by pursuing a course that could plunge the country into further violence.

His remarks come amid growing reports in Somali local media suggesting that political disputes between Mogadishu and regional power brokers are increasingly intersecting with allegations of external military support and preparations for new armed formations.

Sanbalolshe reportedly seeks military backing in Ethiopia

At the centre of the latest concerns is former Somali intelligence chief Abdullahi Mohamed Ali Sanbalolshe, who, according to local media reports, is in the border town of Ferfer to receive military support from Ethiopia.

The reports allege that Sanbalolshe intends to establish a powerful armed force capable of wresting control of the entire Hiran region from the federal government.

His reported plans come against the backdrop of a growing political dispute involving his Hawadle clan and Mogadishu over the leadership of the Hirshabelle regional administration.

The disagreement centres on the selection of the region’s president. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud backed Ali Gudlawe, who belongs to his own clan, for the position. Gudlawe was re-elected on Saturday, further intensifying the political tensions surrounding the regional leadership contest.

The allegations concerning Sanbalolshe’s movements, military support and reported plans have not been independently verified.

Middle Shabelle tensions and alleged UAE support

A separate set of local media reports points to possible preparations for another armed faction in neighbouring Middle Shabelle.

Abdullahi Mohamed Nur, a wealthy businessman affiliated with the clan of opposition leader Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, is reportedly planning to establish a guerrilla force in the region, allegedly with military support from the United Arab Emirates.

The reports further claim that Nur possesses a substantial number of Ma’awisley fighters drawn from his own clan.

Ma’awisley forces are locally organised armed groups that have played a significant role in Somalia’s fight against Al-Shabaab, particularly in central regions. Their potential mobilisation amid political disputes could add another layer of complexity to an already fragile security environment.

The allegations of planned military assistance from the UAE, like those concerning Ethiopia, remain unverified.

Bay remains a flashpoint after Laftagareen’s ouster

The warnings come as Somalia’s federal government continues to grapple with guerrilla warfare by forces loyal to former Southwest State leader Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen.

Laftagareen was ousted from power in March by a military operation, forcing his forces out of Baidoa, the interim regional capital. Since then, his fighters have shifted to guerrilla tactics, challenging federal authority across the region.

According to the reports, Laftagareen’s forces made significant territorial gains last week, retaking five districts across Bay region, leaving Baidoa as the only town in the region outside their control.

The renewed fighting underscores the difficulties facing the federal government as it attempts to consolidate its authority following the change of leadership in Southwest State.

The developments also raise concerns that political confrontations, if increasingly pursued through armed proxies and irregular forces, could open additional fronts in a country already fighting a protracted insurgency.

Fears of a wider security crisis

The Somali federal government has not yet publicly commented on the reports concerning the alleged formation of new guerrilla factions, the purported external military backing or Turyare’s warning.

The reports have nevertheless emerged amid mounting political tensions across Somalia, fuelling concerns that disputes between Mogadishu and its opponents could escalate into a wider cycle of armed confrontation.

The potential consequences extend beyond individual regional power struggles. The emergence of additional armed factions in Hiran, Middle Shabelle and Bay could complicate counterterrorism operations, weaken federal authority and create opportunities for Al-Shabaab to exploit divisions among political and clan-based rivals.

Turyare’s warning highlights the risk that armed groups established to advance political or regional interests could eventually become part of a more fragmented security landscape, particularly if they develop relationships with established militant organisations.

For Somalia, the prospect of simultaneous conflicts involving federal forces, regional factions, clan-based militias and al-Shabaab presents a serious challenge at a time when the country continues to depend on extensive international political, financial and security support.

Somalia has spent years rebuilding state institutions and security structures following decades of conflict and state collapse. A further spread of politically driven armed violence could undermine those gains, deepen regional instability and threaten the fragile process of state-building that has continued since 2004.

Contact us: [email protected]