Hiiraan Community Power Struggle Threatens to Deepen Hirshabelle Crisis

Hawadle Demand for Hirshabelle Presidency Collides With Hassan Sheikh’s Backing of Abgaal President Ali Guudlaawe

BELEDWEYNE (WDN) — The crisis in Hirshabelle is increasingly becoming a struggle over political power, with the Hawadle community demanding the presidency of the regional state while President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has backed incumbent President Ali Abdullahi Hussein Guudlaawe, an Abgaal politician, for another term.

The dispute has gone far beyond an ordinary election contest. Hawadle political leaders and elders say they were led to expect that the presidency would return to their community under an informal power-sharing understanding, but President Hassan Sheikh ultimately supported Guudlaawe instead. Hirshabelle Vice President Yusuf Hagar Dabageed has publicly accused the president of breaking that understanding.

The confrontation has now spilled into the political and security environment of Hiiraan. Hawadle leaders have rejected the planned election without a prior political agreement, while elders have moved to prevent Hirshabelle officials and aircraft from operating through airports in Hiiraan until their grievances are addressed.

Al-Shabaab also says it has reached an understanding with Hawadle elders in Maxaas to end years of fighting. The reported agreement has not been independently verified, and it is unclear whether the elders involved represent the wider Hawadle community. But its emergence at a time of intense political confrontation with Mogadishu gives the development far greater significance.

Macawisly militia

A Presidency Dispute with Wider Consequences

The immediate dispute is about who should lead Hirshabelle. Hawadle leaders argue that political representation and power-sharing must be settled before an election can proceed. President Hassan Sheikh’s support for Guudlaawe has therefore been interpreted by opposing Hawadle figures as a departure from an earlier political understanding.

At the same time, the Hawadle community is not politically united. A separate Hawadle political council led by former Hirshabelle President Ali Abdullahi Osoble has backed Guudlaawe and supported participation in the election.

That division is important. The confrontation should not be presented as if every Hawadle leader holds the same position.

But the scale of the opposition is significant. Hawadle elders and politicians have demanded a political settlement, and demonstrations in Beledweyne have rejected an election without an agreement on representation and power-sharing.

The Al-Shabaab Factor

Hawadle communities were among the most important local forces in the fight against Al-Shabaab during the 2022 Macawisley offensive. Local fighters, working alongside Somali government forces, helped drive Al-Shabaab from large areas of central Somalia.

But the gains were not permanent. Al-Shabaab later regained territory, while prolonged fighting imposed heavy costs on communities that had participated in the war.

The reported understanding in Maxaas therefore raises a serious question: what happens when a community that once fought Al-Shabaab begins looking for local arrangements with the group while simultaneously confronting the federal government over political representation?

Al-Shabaab has previously sought agreements with local clans and sub-clans when such arrangements serve its interests. Similar understandings involving Hawadle subdivisions were reported in 2023.

The latest development should therefore not automatically be interpreted as a Hawadle alliance with Al-Shabaab. It may instead reflect a combination of local security concerns, political frustration and war fatigue.

A Political Crisis Becoming a Security Risk

For Mogadishu, the danger is that a dispute over the Hirshabelle presidency could gradually become something much larger.

The federal government faces an increasingly difficult choice: push ahead with an election that significant Hawadle figures reject, or reopen negotiations over the political settlement and power-sharing arrangements. The Al-Shabaab development adds urgency to that choice.

The central question is no longer simply who will become president of Hirshabelle. It is whether the struggle over political power will deepen the alienation of a community that has already paid a heavy price fighting Al-Shabaab — and create new space for the militant group to exploit.

If political disputes continue without a settlement, Al-Shabaab may not need to defeat its former opponents militarily. It may simply wait for political frustration, insecurity and exhaustion to do the work.

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