HirShabelle Faces Possible Disintegration Following Macawiisley Forces’ Abandon Frontlines in Hiiraan

BELEDWEYNE (WDN) — HirShabelle’s authority over Hiiraan is facing a potentially decisive challenge as local Macawiisley forces reportedly withdraw from frontline positions and converge on Beledweyne, raising fears that a political revolt could dismantle the regional administration and create dangerous security vacuums.

Reports from Hiiraan indicate that the community-based fighters, originally mobilised to support the Somali National Army in its campaign against Al-Shabaab, are abandoning several defensive positions around Buuloburde and Matabaan. Other units are reportedly preparing to leave the Jalalaqsi area.

The movement comes amid escalating tensions between Hiiraan elders and political leaders, on one side, and the Federal Government and HirShabelle authorities on the other. What began as a political dispute related to FGS staged one-sided local election is increasingly affecting the local security forces that have been central to the fight against Al-Shabaab.

The Macawiisley are reportedly backing a proposed change in the region’s administration, with local leaders seeking to establish a separate Hiiraan administration in Beledweyne, led by the Hawadle community and operating independently of HirShabelle.

Beledweyne becomes the center of the confrontation

Approximately 2,000 heavily armed Macawiisley fighters are reportedly now in Beledweyne, accompanied by military vehicles. On Friday, the forces peacefully took control of the Lama Galaay military camp and the regional and district administrative headquarters.

Local community leaders are reportedly considering turning these fighters into the core security force of the proposed new administration, assigning them responsibility for both its establishment and defense.

If implemented, such a move would represent a major blow to HirShabelle’s authority in Hiiraan. The regional administration could find itself losing control not only of key government institutions but also of the local security structures on which its presence depends.

The developments also raise the prospect of a broader realignment within the Somali National Army. There are growing fears that locally recruited federal soldiers in Hiiraan could abandon their defensive positions and become drawn into the political confrontation against Mogadishu and HirShabelle.

Al-Shabaab stands to benefit

The security implications could be severe. For years, locally recruited Somali National Army units and Macawiisley fighters have operated together in the campaign against Al-Shabaab, helping to drive the militant group from territory it previously controlled.

Their cooperation has been particularly important because the national army has struggled with manpower shortages and limited capacity to replace forces withdrawing from frontline positions. The military command is reportedly not equipped to rapidly fill every position that might be abandoned.

A breakdown in cooperation between the army and local defense forces would therefore create opportunities for Al-Shabaab to return to areas from which it was previously expelled. The group could exploit the political divisions, weakened defensive lines and uncertainty over command structures to regain territory without having to confront the same level of local resistance.

Already, political instability is diverting military attention away from offensive operations. Instead of concentrating on reclaiming territory from Al-Shabaab, government forces are increasingly burdened with defending major towns and protecting vital supply and logistical routes.

The unravelling of HirShabelle

The crisis in Hiiraan is becoming more than a dispute over local political representation. It threatens the territorial and institutional cohesion of HirShabelle itself.

If the proposed separate administration gains control of Beledweyne and establishes its own security force, HirShabelle could effectively lose one of its most important regions. Such a development would further expose the weakness of Somalia’s federal arrangements, particularly where regional administrations lack broad political legitimacy among the communities they govern.

For Mogadishu, the consequences could be equally serious. The Federal Government risks losing the cooperation of local forces that have played a vital role in the war against Al-Shabaab. A political confrontation that turns those forces against the federal and regional authorities could undermine years of security operations.

The immediate danger is that the struggle for political control will fracture the local security alliance before a credible alternative force is ready to take its place. In that vacuum, Al-Shabaab may be the principal beneficiary.

HirShabelle now faces a defining test: whether it can preserve its authority through political accommodation or whether the growing revolt in Hiiraan will mark the beginning of its effective disintegration.

WardheerNews