President Hassan Sheikh’s economic rhetoric collides with the reality on the ground

Sheikh Mohamed Idris challenges the president’s claims of economic transformation, arguing that Somalia cannot become an export-driven economy without reliable electricity, infrastructure, political stability, industrial investment and credible economic policies.

MOGADISHU (WDN) — President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has spoken of transforming Somalia from an import-dependent economy into an export-oriented nation. But where is the evidence that the country is ready to make that leap?

That question has been raised by prominent Somali Islamic scholar Sheikh Mohamed Idris, who has sharply criticised the president’s recent economic statements, accusing him of presenting ambitions as though they were achievements while failing to address the structural obstacles preventing Somalia from becoming a productive, investment-driven economy.

In a statement published on Facebook, Sheikh Idris challenged the president’s claim that Somalia spends approximately $300 million importing low-quality powdered milk. He also questioned the government’s stated ambition to move the country away from dependence on imports towards producing and exporting goods.

His criticism strikes at a fundamental weakness in Somalia’s economic debate: announcing an ambition to become an export-oriented economy is not the same as building the infrastructure, industries and institutions needed to make it happen.

The president may be right that Somalia must produce more and import less. But Sheikh Idris argues that the government has offered insufficient evidence that the country is prepared to make that transition.

From Presidential Promises to Economic Reality

Addressing Hassan Sheikh directly, Sheikh Idris questioned why the president was speaking about export-led growth without demonstrating that his administration, or successive governments, had established the foundations necessary to achieve it.

His criticism extends beyond the current presidency. He argued that administrations governing Somalia since 2012 have failed to make sufficient progress in addressing the fundamental constraints on domestic production.

The scholar’s central argument is straightforward: a country cannot become a major exporter simply by declaring that it wants to export.

Before goods can be manufactured for international markets, investors must be willing to finance production. Businesses need reliable electricity, roads, transport networks, functioning ports, predictable regulations and a stable political environment. Manufacturers also require access to finance, skilled workers and markets in which they can compete.

Without these foundations, export-oriented growth risks remaining a political slogan rather than a credible economic strategy.

Somalia cannot manufacture its way into prosperity without first creating the conditions in which manufacturing becomes commercially viable.

Electricity: A Fundamental Barrier to Investment

Sheikh Idris highlighted electricity generation as one of the most important constraints facing Somalia, comparing the country’s reported capacity with that of other African economies and major manufacturing nations.

The figures he cited put Somalia’s electricity generation capacity at approximately 0.48 gigawatts, compared with around 6.75–7 gigawatts for Ethiopia, 3.8 gigawatts for Kenya, 2.73 gigawatts for Tanzania and 2.06 gigawatts for Uganda.

He also pointed to the much larger power systems of countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, arguing that their industrial and export capabilities depend partly on substantial energy infrastructure.

The figures require verification against comparable, up-to-date energy statistics, and installed capacity should not be confused with the electricity actually generated or reliably delivered. Nevertheless, the underlying issue is difficult to dismiss: affordable and dependable power is essential for modern industry.

Manufacturing requires electricity to operate machinery, process agricultural products, preserve food, produce construction materials and maintain cold-storage facilities. Unreliable or expensive power raises production costs and makes locally manufactured goods less competitive.

For Somali businesses, these costs can undermine the very objective the president says he wants to achieve: replacing imported goods with products made domestically.

Investment Requires More Than Political Announcements

Sheikh Idris argues that industrialisation depends on a combination of investment, stability, infrastructure, effective laws and a deliberate commitment to developing productive sectors.

Investors—whether Somali or foreign—need confidence that their capital will be protected, contracts enforced and commercial regulations applied consistently. They also need functioning roads, ports, electricity networks and other infrastructure that allows goods to move efficiently from factories and farms to consumers and export markets.

Economic free zones and other investment incentives may help attract capital, but they cannot compensate for insecurity, unreliable services or unpredictable government decisions.

Somalia also needs to strengthen its capacity to process the products it already produces. Livestock, fisheries and agricultural goods offer potential opportunities, but expanding exports requires investment in processing facilities, veterinary and quality-control systems, cold chains, logistics and access to international markets.

The objective should not simply be to export more raw commodities. It should be to create greater domestic value by processing, packaging and manufacturing products within Somalia, generating jobs and expanding the tax base.

The Evidence the Government Must Produce

The president’s ambition to make Somalia more export-oriented is not inherently unrealistic. The question is whether his administration can demonstrate a credible pathway from aspiration to measurable results.

That requires more than speeches. The government should publish clear evidence of progress in electricity generation and distribution, infrastructure development, industrial investment, business formation, manufacturing output and export performance.

It should also explain how its economic policies will reduce production costs, improve access to finance, strengthen commercial regulations and attract investment into productive sectors.

The claim that Somalia is becoming an investment hub must likewise be supported by evidence: actual investment commitments and disbursements, completed projects, new productive capacity, jobs created and measurable improvements in the business environment. Announced deals alone do not establish that an investment transformation has occurred.

Sheikh Idris’s intervention highlights a broader challenge for Somalia’s leadership. Economic confidence cannot be built on ambitious declarations alone. It must be earned through policies and results that businesses, workers and investors can see.

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