Qansaxdheere’s Capture Highlights Why South West State’s Political Crisis Needs Negotiations, Not More War

BAIDOA (WDN) — The reported capture of Qansaxdheere by forces loyal to former South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen marks another escalation in the region’s political and military crisis. But as rival forces compete for territory, the latest developments underscore a fundamental reality: South West State’s struggle for political legitimacy cannot be resolved through continued warfare. It requires negotiations, an inclusive political settlement and an end to the cycle of armed confrontation.

Forces aligned with Laftagareen reportedly took control of Qansaxdheere, in Bay region, approximately 90 kilometres from Baidoa. According to local reports, some government troops surrendered, while others sought refuge inside a camp operated by Ethiopian forces. These details have not been independently verified.

Hassan Abdikadir Mohamed, Laftagareen’s security adviser, announced that South West State Darawish forces had taken full control of the district and claimed that residents had welcomed them. The statement reflects Laftagareen’s supporters’ account of the operation; the circumstances surrounding the takeover and the extent of local support remain unclear.

The capture represents a fresh challenge to the authorities aligned with federal parliamentary speaker and South West State political figure Aden Mohamed Nur, widely known as Aden Madoobe, amid the continuing contest over who should govern the region.

A military advance cannot settle a political dispute

For Laftagareen’s supporters, the recapture of Qansaxdheere is more than a battlefield achievement. Ugaas Hassan Abdi Mohamed, a former spokesman for the administration that lost power, described the development as a step towards restoring what he considers the region’s legitimate government.

He argued that bringing Qansaxdheere back under Laftagareen’s leadership represented the recovery of South West State’s political authority, legal order and territorial control.

But competing claims of legitimacy lie at the heart of the crisis. One side presents its military campaign as a struggle to restore constitutional government; the other seeks to reassert its own authority. Neither claim, by itself, can establish a durable political settlement.

The danger is that each territorial gain will encourage the opposing side to mobilise, counterattack and seek outside military assistance. In such circumstances, towns and districts risk becoming prizes in a contest for power, while civilians bear the consequences of displacement, insecurity and interrupted livelihoods.

Diinsoor could become the next flashpoint

Reports also suggest that Laftagareen-aligned forces may be preparing to advance towards Diinsoor, another district in Bay region. The reported deployment has not been independently confirmed, and it remains unclear whether an offensive is imminent.

If the reports prove accurate, the prospect of further fighting would deepen fears that the conflict is spreading rather than moving towards a political solution. A new advance could trigger counter-mobilisation, increase pressure on communities and draw additional armed actors into the confrontation.

The possibility of further operations makes urgent dialogue more important, not less. Every new battle risks hardening positions, increasing mistrust and making compromise politically more difficult.

Negotiations offer the only durable way forward

South West State’s crisis cannot be reduced to a question of which force controls Qansaxdheere, Diinsoor or Baidoa. The underlying dispute concerns political legitimacy, the exercise of authority, security arrangements and the process through which the region’s leadership should be chosen.

Those questions cannot be settled sustainably by force. Even if one side gains additional territory, military control does not automatically produce public consent, institutional legitimacy or lasting peace.

The Federal Government of Somalia, regional political leaders, traditional elders and credible independent mediators should therefore work towards negotiations that address the causes of the conflict rather than simply its latest battlefield developments. Such a process would need to establish a mutually acceptable political framework, protect civilians, prevent reprisals and create a credible path towards representative governance.

Any agreement must also address the role of armed forces and external security actors. Ethiopian forces reportedly sheltering troops who withdrew from Qansaxdheere illustrate how military developments in South West State can intersect with wider security relationships. Regional actors should help prevent escalation rather than become instruments in Somalia’s internal political competition.

Negotiations do not require either side to abandon its political claims before talks begin. They require both to recognise that continued warfare carries mounting costs and offers no reliable guarantee of a legitimate or lasting outcome.

Qansaxdheere may have changed hands, but the central political dispute remains unresolved. If the parties respond to every military advance with another offensive, South West State risks being trapped in a prolonged conflict. The alternative is to turn the current crisis into an opportunity for dialogue, compromise and a political settlement that can command broader public confidence.

The question is no longer simply who can capture the next town. It is whether South West State’s leaders can find the political courage to negotiate before further fighting exacts an even greater price from the people they claim to represent.

WardheerNews