Somalia Between Ethiopia, Egypt and Eritrea

Somalia has spent the past several years trying to reposition itself from an arena of regional competition into an increasingly consequential geopolitical actor.

The renewed crisis between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt now presents one of the clearest tests of whether Mogadishu can sustain that ambition.

For Somalia, the central question is not whether to take sides in Ethiopia's conflict. It is whether Mogadishu can remain sufficiently engaged to protect its interests while avoiding becoming entangled in a war whose consequences it cannot control.

The answer will require something Somalia has historically struggled to maintain: strategic consistency.

Ethiopia’s instability presents Somalia with both risks and opportunities

Ethiopia is too important to Somalia to ignore and too powerful to confront casually.

The two countries share a long border, extensive economic and security ties, and a complicated political history. Ethiopian forces have also played an important role in Somalia's security architecture, including through the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia.

Any significant deterioration inside Ethiopia therefore has immediate implications for Somalia.

If Addis Ababa is forced to redirect military resources toward Tigray, Amhara, Afar or other internal fronts, Ethiopia's ability to sustain deployments outside its borders could change. For Somalia, that raises questions about the future configuration of AUSSOM, border security and counterinsurgency operations.

Yet Ethiopian instability would not necessarily benefit Somalia.

A weakened Ethiopian state could mean greater instability along the border, refugee movements, illicit arms flows, disruption of commerce and increased opportunities for Al-Shabaab.

Mogadishu should therefore resist a potentially seductive but dangerous assumption: that Ethiopia's strategic difficulties automatically strengthen Somalia's position.