Somalia’s election crisis deepens: Farmaajo, Sharif and Khayre warn Hassan Sheikh risks national disintegration

MOGADISHU (WDN) — Somalia’s political crisis escalated sharply after three prominent former national leaders and senior opposition figures c ondemned the federal government’s newly announced election timetable , warning that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s unilateral approach could trigger parallel elections, renewed conflict and further fragmentation of the Somali state.

Former presidents Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire and opposition politician Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame all rejected the timetable, arguing that it was announced without the political consensus needed to secure a credible and nationally accepted electoral process.

Their statements reflect growing opposition fears that Hassan Sheikh’s determination to proceed with his preferred electoral arrangements, despite unresolved disputes with opposition leaders and federal member states, could push Somalia into another dangerous confrontation over political legitimacy and control of the state.

The central message from the opposition is unmistakable: if the president proceeds without a negotiated settlement and the country descends into further instability, his administration will bear substantial political responsibility for the consequences.

Farmaajo accuses Hassan Sheikh of endangering the state

In a strongly worded statement, former president Farmaajo condemned what he described as a unilateral decision by an electoral commission established by a president whose term, in Farmaajo’s assessment, has expired.

He warned that the proposed process threatened Somalia’s statehood and political future, potentially producing competing elections and spreading civil conflict across the country.

Farmaajo argued that Somalia’s political destiny could not be determined through unilateral decisions or the personal wishes of one leader. He called for the continuation of political negotiations and an inclusive election to be organised without further delay.

He also urged former national leaders, federal member state presidents and other political stakeholders to work together towards a transparent electoral settlement. International partners, he added, should continue their mediation efforts and help the Somali parties reach agreement.

Farmaajo’s intervention underscores the opposition’s central objection: the dispute is not simply about election dates, but about who has the authority to determine the electoral framework and whether the process commands sufficient political legitimacy.

Sharif Sheikh Ahmed warns of parallel elections and conflict

Former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed also strongly rejected the announced timetable, warning that a disputed electoral process could lead to parallel elections, institutional paralysis, deeper political divisions and civil conflict.

His warning highlights the risk that rival political camps could establish competing electoral arrangements, each claiming legitimacy while rejecting the other’s authority.

Such a confrontation would leave Somalia facing more than a disagreement over the presidency. It could undermine the functioning of federal institutions, deepen mistrust between Mogadishu and federal member states, and weaken the political cooperation needed to confront the country’s security and development challenges.

Khayre: Hassan Sheikh must answer for the consequences

Former prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire issued one of the sharpest condemnations, rejecting what he described as a unilateral election timetable lacking an inclusive political agreement and carrying disputed legitimacy.

Khaire argued that announcing election dates before resolving disagreements over the political framework and the principles governing the vote undermined ongoing negotiations intended to end the country’s uncertainty.

He warned that the decision could intensify political and security instability, encourage parallel elections and threaten national unity.

“The president whose term has expired, Hassan Sheikh, will bear responsibility for any consequences arising from this reckless decision,” Khaire said in his statement.

His remarks place the question of political accountability at the centre of the dispute. The opposition’s argument is that the president cannot disregard the concerns of major political stakeholders and then avoid responsibility if the resulting confrontation damages the country’s stability.

Opposition warns of a return to Somalia’s darkest chapter

Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, an opposition leader associated with the Future Council, also warned that Hassan Sheikh’s move could lead to renewed division and conflict.

Opposition lawmaker Abdilatif Muse Nur, known as Sanyare, invoked the traumatic period following the collapse of Somalia’s central government in 1991. He warned that Mogadishu could return to a situation resembling the fragmented political order associated with the administration of Ali Mahdi Mohamed, while the wider country could again move towards disintegration.

The comparison is a stark political warning, not proof that Somalia will repeat the events of the 1990s. Nevertheless, it reflects the depth of concern among opponents who believe that unilateral electoral decisions could turn a political dispute into a much wider crisis.

Hassan Sheikh faces a defining test

The latest reactions expose the widening gulf between the federal government and influential political figures who reject its approach to the next election. The unresolved question is whether the administration will reopen negotiations and seek an agreement with opposition groups and federal member states, or press ahead with a process that major stakeholders have already condemned.

A published timetable cannot, by itself, resolve disputes over constitutional authority, electoral procedures or the legitimacy of the institutions organising the vote. Without an agreed framework, Somalia risks entering a contest in which rival sides challenge one another’s authority and the outcome becomes another source of instability.

The consequences could extend far beyond the presidential contest. A breakdown in political cooperation could deepen divisions between federal institutions and member states, distract the government from security priorities and further weaken public confidence in Somalia’s fragile federal system.

Hassan Sheikh’s supporters may argue that the government must proceed with elections rather than allow political negotiations to continue indefinitely. But that argument does not remove the need to establish a process that is legally defensible, transparent and accepted by the country’s principal political stakeholders.

The president still has an opportunity to reduce the risk by returning to negotiations, addressing constitutional disagreements and pursuing an inclusive electoral settlement. Whether he chooses that path will help determine whether Somalia moves towards a peaceful political transition or another period of confrontation.

The warning from Farmaajo, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Khaire and other opposition figures is that Somalia’s unity cannot be preserved through unilateral political decisions. If the current electoral dispute escalates into parallel elections, widespread conflict or further fragmentation, Hassan Sheikh’s leadership will face serious questions about whether his choices helped prevent a national crisis—or helped bring one about.

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