South West Somalia’s Escalating Conflict: Why Military Victory May Remain Elusive Without a Political Settlement

Airstrikes in Bakool target Al-Shabaab and forces loyal to former regional president Laftagareen as fighting spreads across Bay and Bakool. With rival forces contesting control of key districts, the crisis risks becoming a protracted conflict unless Mogadishu and its opponents return to negotiations.

WAJID, Bakool Region (WDN) — Somalia’s escalating confrontation over South West State is entering a more dangerous phase, with airstrikes reported yesterday near Wajid targeting both Al-Shabaab militants and forces loyal to former regional president Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen. The operation underscores the growing complexity of a conflict in which the Federal Government’s struggle to regain territorial control is becoming entangled with a wider political dispute over who governs the region.

Somali military officials said the targeted strikes hit locations where fighters had gathered outside Wajid and that the operation had proceeded as planned. They pledged to continue military operations in the area but did not disclose an official casualty figure. The reported losses could not be independently verified.

The strikes come amid mounting tensions across Bay and Bakool, where forces aligned with Laftagareen have reportedly seized several districts from the administration led by Adan Mohamed Nur, widely known as Adan Madoobe, which enjoys the backing of the Federal Government of Somalia.

The districts reported to have changed hands include Qansax Dheere, Bardale, Buurhakaba and Diinsoor in Bay region. South West State’s authorities have been preparing a counteroffensive to recover the lost territory, raising fears of further clashes.

A Political Dispute Turning Into a Military Confrontation

What began as a dispute over regional political authority has increasingly become a contest of military strength. The Federal Government is supporting the administration in Baidoa, while Laftagareen’s forces are seeking to reverse the political and territorial changes that followed the breakdown of relations between the rival camps.

The latest airstrikes illustrate the difficulty of separating the fight against Al-Shabaab from the struggle between Somali political actors. The reported presence of both militants and Laftagareen-aligned forces among the targets raises questions about the operational environment and the potential consequences for civilians living in affected areas.

For residents of Bay and Bakool, the danger is immediate: renewed fighting could disrupt travel, trade, access to essential services and the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Communities already exposed to insecurity may find themselves caught between rival forces as each side seeks to consolidate or recover territory.

The situation also presents a broader challenge for Somalia’s federal system. When disputes over political leadership and regional authority are settled through armed confrontation, the damage extends beyond the immediate battlefield. Institutions weaken, local divisions deepen and opportunities for Al-Shabaab to exploit insecurity may increase.

How Long Can the Conflict Continue?

The central question is no longer simply whether one side can capture a district from the other. It is whether military operations can produce a durable political outcome in a conflict rooted in competing claims to authority.

Even if federal-backed forces recover some of the lost districts, territorial gains alone may not resolve the underlying dispute. Likewise, advances by Laftagareen-aligned forces cannot by themselves establish a lasting settlement acceptable to the region’s political stakeholders and communities.

Without an agreed political framework, each territorial change risks triggering another counteroffensive. Districts may change hands repeatedly while civilians bear the cost, and the parties may become locked in a cycle of offensives, retreats and renewed mobilisation.

The conflict could therefore drag on unless the competing sides agree to a negotiated settlement. Such an outcome is not inevitable, but the risk of prolonged instability grows when military action replaces political dialogue.

Negotiations Are the Necessary Way Forward

A sustainable resolution requires the Federal Government, South West State’s authorities and Laftagareen-aligned political actors to address the dispute through negotiations rather than relying on force to determine the region’s future.

A credible process would need to establish clear terms for de-escalation, address competing political claims, protect civilians and create an agreed path towards legitimate regional governance. Religious leaders, traditional elders, business representatives and other community figures could help facilitate dialogue, provided the process includes the principal parties and produces practical commitments.

Military operations against Al-Shabaab raise separate security considerations, but they should not become a substitute for resolving political disagreements among Somali actors. Nor should the struggle over regional authority undermine efforts to protect civilians and maintain security.

The airstrikes near Wajid may demonstrate the government’s willingness to continue its campaign, but they do not resolve the political questions driving the wider confrontation.

The lesson is stark: political disputes cannot be settled sustainably by armed clashes . Without negotiations, the struggle for South West State could become a prolonged contest in which neither military advances nor territorial losses deliver lasting stability.

The urgent priority is to stop the escalation before more districts become battlegrounds. Somalia’s leaders must decide whether the future of South West State will be determined through dialogue and an agreed political process—or through a cycle of violence that risks weakening institutions, displacing civilians and creating further opportunities for Al-Shabaab.

WardheerNews