Villa Somalia Gains Upper Hand in Beledweyne, But Hirshabelle Election Still in Doubt

Federal Government Moves to Secure September 30 Vote as Hiiraan Elders Resist Election Without Political Agreement

Beledweyne (WDN) — Villa Somalia appears to have gained the upper hand in the political and security confrontation over Beledweyne, clearing the way for the Federal Government to push ahead with its planned Hirshabelle elections. But winning the immediate confrontation may prove easier than holding the election.

The Federal Government has been determined to ensure that Beledweyne, the capital of Hiiraan, participates in the September 30 Hirshabelle local council and regional assembly elections. The electoral commission formally set September 30 as polling day after postponing the vote from August.

The latest developments suggest that Mogadishu has strengthened its position in the city. A delegation led by Abdifatah Hassan Afrah, the Federal Government-backed candidate for Hirshabelle’s deputy presidency, was expected to travel to Beledweyne to help implement the government’s electoral plans.

The deployment comes after weeks of opposition from Hiiraan politicians, traditional elders and community leaders who have demanded a political agreement before any election is held in the region.

The Opposition Has Not Disappeared

Despite the apparent shift in the balance of power, the political resistance in Hiiraan has not ended.Hawadle politicians and elders have repeatedly rejected an election conducted without prior agreement on political representation and power-sharing.

The dispute escalated last week when hundreds of residents, politicians and elders demonstrated in Beledweyne against the planned electoral process.And on September 29, traditional elders and prominent Hawadle figures announced an even more consequential measure: Hirshabelle officials would be prevented from landing at airports in Hiiraan until a political agreement is reached.

They specifically warned against the use of Beledweyne airport by military aircraft and said ballot boxes should not be brought into the region before an agreement is reached. That development makes the question of whether the election can actually proceed in Hiiraan far from settled.

A Divided Political Landscape while The Clock Is Running

The electoral commission has set September 30 as the polling date, leaving virtually no time for the competing sides to bridge their differences.

The government may have succeeded in overcoming the immediate political and security challenge surrounding Beledweyne, but an election requires more than controlling the physical environment.

It requires polling infrastructure, election officials, voters, political candidates and, critically, a minimum level of acceptance among the communities in which voting is supposed to take place. That is precisely what remains uncertain in Hiiraan.

The confrontation has also exposed divisions within the Hawadle community itself. Earlier this month, the Hawadle Supreme Political Council met Hirshabelle President Ali Abdullahi Hussein Guudlaawe and expressed support for his leadership and the planned one-person, one-vote elections.

At the same time, the traditional leadership and other political figures in Beledweyne have continued to demand that the process be suspended until a political settlement is reached.

This means the Federal Government is not confronting a single, unified opposition. Instead, it faces competing political positions within Hiiraan itself, making the final outcome difficult to predict.

AUSSOM’s Security Presence Adds Another Dimension

Foreign troops are also part of the security environment surrounding Beledweyne.Ethiopian forces serving under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia operate in AUSSOM Sector 4, which includes Beledweyne. The AU mission recently confirmed a rotation of Ethiopian troops in the sector.

The presence of international forces adds to the government’s ability to maintain security around the city, but it does not resolve the underlying political disagreement over the election. Security can keep polling stations open. It cannot by itself create political consensus.

The Real Test Comes on Election Day

Villa Somalia may have won the latest round of the confrontation in Beledweyne. But the more difficult question is whether it can turn that apparent advantage into an election that is actually conducted across Hiiraan and accepted by the major political and community stakeholders.

With the vote scheduled for September 30, the gap between the government’s timetable and the demands of Hiiraan’s traditional and political leaders has become increasingly difficult to ignore.

The government can insist that the election will proceed. The electoral commission can maintain its calendar. Security forces can secure polling locations.

But unless the political dispute is addressed, September 30 could become a test not simply of whether Somalia can hold an election, but whether it can hold one without deepening the political confrontation it was supposed to resolve.

For now, Villa Somalia appears to have won the battle for control of the process in Beledweyne. Whether it has won the election remains an entirely different question.

WardheerNews