Ethiopia’s Seven-Front War Forces New Troop Pullback from Somalia

Addis Ababa Reportedly Plans to Withdraw More Than 3,000 Soldiers as Fighting Spreads Across Multiple Fronts

Addis Ababa (WDN) — Ethiopia’s expanding internal conflict is beginning to carry consequences beyond its borders, with Addis Ababa reportedly preparing to withdraw more than 3,000 troops from Somalia as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government faces mounting military pressure at home.

According to Bloomberg, people familiar with the plan said Ethiopia could begin withdrawing troops from Somalia within days or weeks. The sources did not specify whether the soldiers are serving under the African Union’s AUSSOM mission, bilateral security arrangements, or both.

The reported withdrawal would reflect a difficult strategic calculation: as fighting spreads across multiple fronts inside Ethiopia, Addis Ababa is being forced to reconsider how many troops it can afford to keep deployed abroad.

Ethiopia has maintained thousands of soldiers in Somalia for years, including forces operating under AUSSOM and others deployed under bilateral security arrangements. Ethiopian troops have been particularly active in areas including Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Hiiraan, many of them close to the Ethiopian border.

Seven Fronts Put Pressure on Abiy

The troop withdrawal report comes as Ethiopia faces renewed fighting in the north and growing armed opposition in several regions. Federal forces and their allies have been fighting Tigray forces and other armed groups, putting further strain on the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the two-year Tigray war.

Recent fighting has reportedly spread around strategic areas including Alamata, while drone strikes and ground clashes have caused significant casualties. Médecins Sans Frontières said more than 700 wounded people had reached hospitals it supports in Korem, Alamata and Shire.

The renewed violence comes four years after the Pretoria agreement ended the Tigray war, one of Ethiopia’s deadliest conflicts in decades. At the same time, the emergence of a broader armed opposition coalition has added another layer of pressure on Addis Ababa.

Seven armed groups, reportedly including the TPLF, Oromo Liberation Army and Amhara Fano forces, have announced cooperation against Abiy’s government and called for a transitional political arrangement.

The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of supporting armed groups opposed to Addis Ababa. The three countries have denied the allegations.

A Wider Regional Contest

The conflict is increasingly being viewed through a regional lens. Reports and political claims suggest that the UAE and Türkiye remain closely aligned with the Abiy government, while Eritrea, Egypt and other regional actors are alleged to be more sympathetic to forces opposed to Addis Ababa.

These competing alignments remain politically contested and should not be treated as established military alliances without further evidence.

The strategic stakes are particularly high in Afar, where instability could threaten the major transport corridor linking Addis Ababa with Djibouti. The route carries a large share of Ethiopia’s international trade.

If Ethiopia’s internal conflict continues to widen, the government could face increasingly difficult choices over the deployment of its armed forces.

Could the Federal Army Fragment?

The most serious uncertainty concerns the cohesion of Ethiopia’s federal security forces. The seven-front opposition coalition represents several of the country’s major ethnic and regional constituencies. Some analysts and opposition figures have raised the possibility that prolonged fighting could weaken the federal military or encourage defections.

There is, however, no confirmed evidence that Ethiopia’s federal army is currently disintegrating or preparing to join the opposition coalition.

Such a development would fundamentally alter the balance of power in Ethiopia, but for now it remains a scenario rather than an established fact.

Somalia Faces Its Own Security Dilemma

Ethiopia has withdrawn troops from Somalia before when internal conflicts intensified. When the Tigray war erupted in 2020, Addis Ababa redeployed thousands of soldiers from Somalia to reinforce operations at home.

A new withdrawal could therefore have direct consequences for Somalia. Ethiopian forces remain an important component of the regional security architecture, particularly in areas where Al-Shabaab remains active. A large-scale reduction could create security gaps unless Somalia and its international partners can rapidly compensate for the loss.

For Addis Ababa, however, the dilemma is becoming increasingly difficult: maintain a substantial military presence abroad while multiple armed fronts demand troops at home, or pull forces back to confront an increasingly complex internal war.

The reported withdrawal suggests that Ethiopia may once again be forced to prioritize the battle inside its own borders. As Ethiopia’s house burns on multiple fronts, its military commitments beyond its borders may increasingly become a luxury Addis Ababa can no longer afford.

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