Opposition MP warns Hassan Sheikh’s election plan could push Somalia towards disintegration

Mogadishu (WDN) — An opposition lawmaker has warned that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s handling of Somalia’s disputed electoral process could drive the country towards renewed fragmentation and state collapse, placing responsibility for the consequences squarely on the current administration.

Abdilatif Muse Nur, known as Sanyare, made the warning in response to the federal election timetable announced by the National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. He argued that the government’s approach risks deepening political divisions at a moment when Somalia urgently needs agreement between the federal leadership, opposition groups and federal member states.

In remarks reflecting growing opposition concern, Sanyare warned that Mogadishu could return to the kind of political fragmentation that followed the collapse of the central government in 1991.

“I believe Mogadishu could end up with a government like that of Ali Mahdi, while Somalia could follow the path of disintegration and collapse,” he said. “Responsibility for that outcome will rest with the current government.”

Ali Mahdi Mohamed became president during Somalia’s political breakdown in 1991, but his administration failed to establish effective authority across the country as rival factions fought for control. Sanyare’s comparison invokes one of the most painful chapters in Somalia’s modern history, when political disputes escalated into armed conflict and the collapse of national institutions.

An election timetable without political consensus

The opposition warning follows the commission’s announcement that parliamentary elections are scheduled for 15 April 2027 and the presidential election for 15 May 2027. The dates have emerged amid continuing disagreements over the constitutional framework, the electoral system and the relationship between the federal government and member states.

Opposition figures argue that announcing an election calendar cannot substitute for a negotiated political settlement. They maintain that proceeding without broad agreement risks turning the electoral process into another source of confrontation rather than a mechanism for resolving the country’s leadership dispute.

The central concern is that unilateral decisions could further alienate political forces and federal member states that already distrust Mogadishu’s approach. If major stakeholders reject the process, Somalia could face a prolonged dispute over the legitimacy of its institutions and the authority of the next government.

Who will bear responsibility?

Sanyare’s warning places the political consequences of the dispute directly before Hassan Sheikh’s administration. The president and his supporters may regard the election timetable as a necessary step towards completing the electoral process. His critics, however, argue that the government cannot expect national acceptance simply by announcing dates without first addressing fundamental disagreements.

The stakes extend well beyond the next presidential contest. Somalia’s federal system depends on cooperation between the central government and member states, as well as a minimum level of confidence among political rivals. Continued confrontation could weaken those relationships, undermine national institutions and complicate efforts to address insecurity and other urgent challenges.

A return to widespread state collapse is not inevitable, and Sanyare’s comparison is a political warning rather than a prediction that the events of 1991 will be repeated. Nevertheless, the danger of escalating fragmentation deserves serious attention when disputes over elections and constitutional authority remain unresolved.

Hassan Sheikh’s administration still has an opportunity to reduce those risks by engaging opposition leaders and federal member states in meaningful negotiations, clarifying the constitutional basis for the electoral process and seeking an agreement that commands broad political confidence.

If the government instead presses ahead without such a settlement, its opponents will argue that it bears a substantial share of the responsibility for any resulting crisis.

The message from the opposition is stark: Somalia cannot afford another political breakdown driven by a struggle for power. If unilateral electoral decisions deepen divisions and push the country towards further fragmentation, Hassan Sheikh’s legacy will be judged not only by the election he seeks to organise, but also by whether his leadership preserves—or further weakens—the Somali state.

WardheerNews