Somali MP sounds alarm over Hirshabelle election, warns Baydabo-style crisis could follow

Mogadishu (WDN) – Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is pressing ahead with his unilateral electoral scheme, a calculated power grab designed to secure JSP’s dominance, orchestrate his return to office, and install his loyalists across the federal member states through a sham electoral process overseen by a commission operating under his directives.

The political theatre witnessed most recently in Galmudug and Hirshabelle, following the earlier sham one in Southwest State, serves as further evidence of an electoral process that undermines democracy and federalism while pushing Somalia toward deeper political instability.

A Somali federal lawmaker, Abdimalik, representing the Hiiraan region has strongly condemned the electoral process in Hirshabelle, describing it as illegitimate and alleging that its outcome was predetermined before voters had a meaningful opportunity to choose their representatives.

Speaking to journalists outside the Somali Parliament, the MP said he could not accept an electoral process in which the winners were allegedly known in advance. He warned that proceeding without genuine competition, transparency and legal legitimacy could trigger a political confrontation similar to the one now unfolding in Southwest State.

“We cannot accept an election of this kind, where the outcome is already known,” Abdimalik told reporters. He issued a stark warning about the consequences of imposing a disputed electoral process, saying: “If this type of election is conducted in Hirshabelle, what is happening in Baidabo now will happen here as well.”

His comparison refers to the mounting political and military tensions in Southwest State, where disputes over political authority and elections have contributed to a volatile situation. The MP’s remarks suggest that the controversy surrounding Hirshabelle’s election could extend beyond disagreements over individual candidates and become a broader challenge to the administration’s legitimacy.

‘We will not accept what is unlawful’

Journalists also asked Abdimalik whether opposition to the election was confined to his own community, potentially leaving it isolated in its objections.

The lawmaker rejected that characterisation, arguing that his position was not about opposing an election for its own sake. Rather, he said, his side would refuse to accept a process it considered unacceptable and inconsistent with the law.

His response highlights a central question facing Hirshabelle: whether the electoral process can command sufficient confidence among competing political groups and communities to avoid a deeper confrontation.

A warning that should not be ignored

The controversy comes amid wider disputes in Somalia over electoral arrangements, political representation and the legitimacy of processes conducted without broad agreement. Critics argue that elections lose credibility when participants believe the results have been decided in advance or that the rules favour particular candidates.

Such perceptions can undermine public confidence, deepen political grievances and encourage opponents to challenge the outcome outside established institutions.

Abdimalik’s warning that Hirshabelle could face a crisis resembling the one in Baidabo should therefore be understood as a political caution, rather than proof that the same events will occur. Whether tensions escalate will depend on the conduct of the election, the response of rival political groups and the willingness of the relevant authorities to address grievances through dialogue.

The central test for Hirshabelle is whether its election can demonstrate genuine competition and public legitimacy—or whether a disputed process will deepen divisions and open another front in Somalia’s wider political crisis.

WardheerNews